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Comment by tyh | Hacker News Reader

> There are Chinese generals who claim the war will be over in a few days. That's what Putin thought when invading Russia and trying to take Kyiv.

Geographically Taiwan is easier to isolate. It is also a much smaller and denser country. Ukraine has a direct border with a NATO country that has been very useful as a safe staging area. Taiwan would be completely reliant on sea and air for resupply.

As a Taiwanese American, I do believe my cousins would put up a valiant fight. However it is hard to imagine it lasting very long without foreign boots on the ground. A conflict of any length in Taiwan would result in a huge loss of life.

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Taiwan is also an island separated by hundreds of miles of ocean from the mainland. Russia shared thousands of miles of land border with Ukraine, much of it flat steppe. China's ability to make meaningful changes in Taiwan would be difficult with it's own boots on the ground, and it would be far harder to to that in Taiwan than Russia doing it in Ukraine.

You seem to forget that Ukraine has hundreds of km of borders with NATO countries (Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania). Refugees go out, military supplies go in. How would that happen in Taiwan.

Boats, aircraft.

Yes, there's no direct land route for Taiwan's allies to use, but the same is true of Chinese forces trying to get onto the island. Their supply routes may be shorter than Taiwan's, but they are just as vulnerable. Both sides are likely to suffer a majority of their losses just trying to supply their troops, and the effectiveness of submarine warfare against enemy shipping and air superiority against enemy airlifts will determine victory in the long run. So long as the West maintains superior submarine and carrier fleets, they offset the longer supply lines. If China catches up in either or both of those areas, the advantage of shorter supply routes starts to tilt in their favor.

Invasion of Taiwan would require the largest amphibious assault in history. And it's easy to point defensive artillery at the water.

So the PRC would need air superiority to disable those defensive positions, which would immediately pull the US and allies into the fight.

There's no Blitzkrieg option. By the time the PRC reaches the semiconductor facilities they will be scuttled. And consider the straight of Malacca instantly closed too. To win the invasion of Taiwan, the PRC would essentially need to defeat the military of the US and every Pacific ally.

I wouldn't move to Taiwan any time soon, but (despite the rhetoric) invasion still seems unlikely... Unless starting a war is the end goal itself.

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