Pay attention to this. A war between China and Taiwan is quite possible. There are Chinese generals who claim the war will be over in a few days. That's what Putin thought when invading Russia and trying to take Kyiv.
Pakistan collapsing has always been a meme but I've never seen things be this bad in all those years. For the first time in my living memory, the Pakistani Army is losing legitimacy. As corrupt as it might be, as an Indian, you could at least go to sleep knowing that there was some order and hierarchy on the other side.
But if the army goes, then I don't know what chaos fills that vaccum.
Beyond that Pakistan doesn’t really have advanced military technology sure it has some US jets but those aren’t particularly useful to anyone outside of maybe Iran.
The danger isn't that someone will use Pakistani military equipment to cause mass destruction. The danger is that someone will use that equipment to bait India into a war.
That’s why China is using Russia to try to tie down, wear down, and/or split the Western alliance, not because of either national or ideological affinity. It creates a temporary, or if really successful more durable, opening.
And the trading relationship between the west and China is the most important in the world.
There'd be famine, hyperinflation, riots, and chaos all over the place.
Even if an immediate war ended quickly, the following instability would merely pave the way for new ones.
The best thing that can happen for the world situation is for the Chinese domestic political tone to step away from the brink with all the imperialist sabre rattling, and for the US to do the same.
The second best thing is that elites in the west plan now to disentangle economic dependencies enough that if such a thing were to happen it would have less impact. There seem to be some moves on that front, but doesn't seem realistic overall.
Also Taiwanese military has some pro-One China elements in it last I've heard.
Geographically Taiwan is easier to isolate. It is also a much smaller and denser country. Ukraine has a direct border with a NATO country that has been very useful as a safe staging area. Taiwan would be completely reliant on sea and air for resupply.
As a Taiwanese American, I do believe my cousins would put up a valiant fight. However it is hard to imagine it lasting very long without foreign boots on the ground. A conflict of any length in Taiwan would result in a huge loss of life.
So the PRC would need air superiority to disable those defensive positions, which would immediately pull the US and allies into the fight.
There's no Blitzkrieg option. By the time the PRC reaches the semiconductor facilities they will be scuttled. And consider the straight of Malacca instantly closed too. To win the invasion of Taiwan, the PRC would essentially need to defeat the military of the US and every Pacific ally.
I wouldn't move to Taiwan any time soon, but (despite the rhetoric) invasion still seems unlikely... Unless starting a war is the end goal itself.
Just like with Putin's generals, Xi's generals may tell him what he wants to hear. If the wants to hear they will be ready to invade Taiwan in 2027, and they say it's not possible, then they'll be replaced with some who say it's possible. If 2027 comes and the invasion is about as successful as Russia's invasion, then they may or may not be replaced. Replaced for sure today versus replaced maybe in 4 years, which one to choose?
China smashed the US at Chosin Resevoir despite dramatically higher casualties
Ho Chi Minh once said something like "ten Vietnamese will die for every US soldier that dies...we will win"
and he was right
keep that in mind
every American should learn about Chosin Reservoir...a forgotten battle that may very well be the worst US military defeat since WW2, maybe the only time in recent history where US soldiers broke unit cohesion and were running for their lives
It pushed German logistics off the edge, forcing them to allocate most of their heavy lift aircraft and fuel to try to keep North Africa.
That said Ukraine isn’t binary case either. Russian problems in Ukraine seem to go well beyond just logistics and are plagued by lack of strategy and even a remotely competent military leadership.
The technological advantage Ukraine has isn’t what led them to prevail.
If Russia could employ even basic combined arms warfare and conduct organized advances that serve a singular strategic objective the result would likely be very different.
The question is right now is where the people element of the Chinese military sits.
No, that was the Soviet Union. And, by modern Russia’s standards as used to describe the situation in Ukraine, you can’t really credit the USSR either, as it was really a proxy war by the USA against Nazi Germany.