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Comment by pydry | Hacker News Reader

>Given Russia couldn’t conquer Ukraine first time round, it seems unlikely that they will be able to support a sustained campaign against a country that isn’t going to give up

They're pretty much going to have to give up at some point. The west can't feed them with sufficient arms and ammunition to keep up and it has blown through all of its spares. It can ramp up to match, but probably not within the next 2 years which is too late.

Western media has been putting a spin on this in the last week (e.g. blinken's "Ukraine will have to recover some territory through political means"), but it's pretty clear if you look at the production numbers, current shell rates, etc.

It's also why some Republicans are starting to feign being anti-war - to try and make this "Biden's" war, so in the event of failure the failure gets chalked up to him.

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America ramped up from having no appreciable military to being the number 1 military power during WW2, all in time to help win the thing.

So can the entire West crank out more shells than Ukraine can shoot at Russia if global stability depends on it? Of course we can.

Canada, any single major NATO nation could produce arms in sufficient quantity, to make a major difference.

It's all about cost, not capability. And right now, that cost is being spread over dozens of nations, quite a few of them with wealth greater than Russia.

And that was GDP before sanctions.

So yes, 100%, we can supply the Ukraine forever. And beyond this, many countries are sending good, but aging equipment. Even artillery, ammo has age limits.

So we send older, but well maintained gear, and then buy new, refreshed supplies. That's what is happening in Canada, at least.

So Russia is actually helping the West's offensive capacities, by increasing military spending, and refreshing hardware.

And they could ramp up again, but it's not going to make a difference in the next six critical months especially without putting the economy on a war footing and suppressing civilian production like they did last time.

If China decides to supply Russia, it'll make even less of a difference. Russia already outproduces the US in steel (key input into shells, and a bottleneck in both wars). China outproduces by a factor of 10.

Nothing is "critical" about the next six months. In fact, it's possible nothing much will happen in the next six months, if Ukraine opts to spend it training the >100k troops it just called up during the late fall and winter, waiting for the armour from the West to be delivered, and building up a stockpile of ammo. Ukraine has this choice because Russia just exhausted its offensive capability in a mid-winter offensive that didn't accomplish much and has stalled out. Russia is spent as an offensive force until the mid-summer at the very earliest.

If China decides to supply Russia, it won't be in the quantities sufficient to make much of a difference, because they don't wish to trigger significant retaliatory sanctions, certainly not right now when the Chinese economy is in a vulnerable state of coming out of the COVID-era funk. China significantly underproduces Western countries in terms of military industrial complex, quantity but especially quality. I don't want to pull numbers out of thin air but it's Nx, N > 1.

China outproduces by a factor of 10.

You mean Chinese steel, which is terrible, barely passable junk?

Yes, great for mission critical stuff.

Ukraine doesn't need artisanal, hand crafted shells. It needs 10x more than it already has.

Russia doesn't need shells exploding early, or combat gear parts snapping under load.

And that's what Chinese steel does. Fail.

They've only been able to make ball point pens, with a proper round steel ball, for a decade!

They built the largest high speed rail network in the world in less than 20 years.

And probably sourced the steel out-of-country, as they have for other things.

You're wrong.

Anshan Iron and Steel: https://www.steelorbis.com/steel-news/latest-news/ansteel-co...

Panzhihua Iron and Steel: https://news.metal.com/newscontent/101439663/The-exclusive-s...

Baotou Iron and Steel: http://innermongolia.chinadaily.com.cn/baotou/2020-01/03/c_4...

Wuhan Iron and Steel: https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/WUHAN-IRON-AND-ST...

Handan Iron and Steel: https://www.gneesteel.com/news/industry-news/hbis-successful...

You're wrong.

Sounds like a dangerous railway, then.

It’s not, statistically. But don’t let me stop you from clinging to ignorance.

Thanks for all the stats.

That said, clearly they've just been lucky. Sadly, it won't last, and people will pay the price.

Because Chinese steel is junk.

It's junk based on what? Racial inferiority? Why feed stats to someone who isn't interested in reality?

I knew it would come. "Racism". The last refuge of the rascal, throwing dispersion.

Stating reality in China, is not racism.

It's junk because it's of poor quality, and even worse, poor quality control. Personal experience has shown me so, steel product from China is junk.

And no, I won't disbelieve my eyes, and experiences, nor will the many other people I know who have experienced what Chinese "steel" is like.

Car parts, every manner of tool, I've seen steel snap like twigs, screwdriver ends break off, plyers deform when used, brake calipers snap, while North America made parts do not, including tools 50 years old, rusted, stronger than Chinese steel junk.

Chinese steel is junk. Everyone knows this. It's junk.

And calling me a racist is utterly pathetic.

Well China has produced half of the steel in the world and half of the finished steel products for many years. I can't think of a rational reason to believe that all that steel is constantly snapping "like twigs."

https://worldsteel.org/steel-topics/statistics/world-steel-i...

Producing half the steel(which seems highish, but not impossible), doesn't mean it is good steel.

And tools I buy with Chinese steel, do snap like twigs. Other steel does not. Because it's not junk.

Like Chinese steel does.

Because it's junk.

Are these tools all contemporaneous of each other and sold at the same price point? China will sell you anything you want. What most companies want today is planned obsolescence.

Ah, the old "but western companies demand cheap, so china makes cheap" argument.

A nice, classic deflection. Goes right up there with the racist deflection.

No. Western companies ask for spec, Chinese companies say "sure" when they bid, but then just make junk.

With junk parts.

Such as junk Chinese steel. Because they can't make quality steel, because the QA, and knowledge, and capability, and work culture isn't there. Note again, how it was only the early 2010s, when Chinese companies were able to make tiny little steel balls, reliably, and round enough, for ball point pens.

Because Chinese steel is junk.

No deflection.

Because no evidence.

Chinese steel is beautiful.

Because it is perfect.

>The west can't feed them with sufficient arms and ammunition to keep up

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_military_aid_to_Ukrain...

Russia is pulling out T54s on the battlefront, their T14 Armatas are still busy breaking down on red square, their planes are scared shitless and don't even dare fly close to the frontline, they're blindly firing S300s/S400s as a poor man's Grad, versus a Ukraine that receives 5% of the previous generation of crap from the western world. Add to that a highly motivated army (versus whatever clownery the russian army is) and Ukrainians that would rather see their entire country disappear than give in, because they remember the Holodomor.

Russia won't fall, but it sure as hell won't win.

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