It is to the credit of our modernity that the project was completed at all. The real lesson here is not one of generalized slowing, but of a lack of rational analysis, particularly when a wealth of information is available.
It is to the credit of our modernity that the project was completed at all. The real lesson here is not one of generalized slowing, but of a lack of rational analysis, particularly when a wealth of information is available.
Based on around 100 interviews and many diagrams and reports, we managed to decompose the New York construction cost premium over low-cost countries, which is about a full order of magnitude, into the following items:
The stations are overbuilt by a factor of 3, which contributes an overall factor of 2 cost premium
The systems are not standardized, which contributes a factor of about 2.3 cost premium for the systems and 1.35 overall
Labor costs (including supervisors and other white-collar workers) are 50% of hard costs in New York where they should be about 25%, contributing a factor of 3 premium on labor costs and 1.5 overall
Procurement problems including the privatization of risk, change order risk, agency micromanagement of contractors, general red tape, and profit stemming from too little competition double overall costs
Soft costs are depending on what one counts either 21% on top of hard costs where they should be 7%, or 46% where they should be 20% - agency micromanagement of contractors
- general red tape
is very fitting and a direct contribution to - too little competition
I worked with a startup company ~8 years ago that wanted to go after government contracts. According to the owners, everyone they demo'd the product to said it was very clearly superior to what they were currently using.Unfortunately, the people who would use it are not the people that sign off on paying for it. Those people had checklists of irrelevant requirements, slow response times, almost certainly pressure to select "certain" vendors (i.e. those who threw money into lobbying the right folk). It got to the point where they seriously considered hiring a consulting company whose sole purpose was to help others navigate all the red tape that gets thrown in your way when you try to get government contracts.
In the end, they realized that they were better off pivoting entirely to the private sector instead of doing a half and half approach.
I seem to recall a similar tale with the lead pipe retrofitting in Flint, MI... contractors to do the job were picked not necessarily by speed and capability, but by other qualities. Regardless of how they were chosen, though, the city failed to deliver. Despite the crisis starting in April 2014, residents and activists had to sue the city in 2017 to actually get the work completed, and it still isn't done. Mostly done, but not completely... 8 years later.
Reminds me of a demo I did for some Congresscritters once. The staffer said "It'll take $50k per record to bring this database online" so they refused to look at the live, running demo I had of the database online. I heard, later, that someone else got "$50k per record" as a contract.
This reads like a lack of democratic influence and even direct corruption.
That is, these "stakeholders" are not concerned that the voters would be unhappy with their performance, and would fire them (directly or through an action of a newly elected official). They seem to be conveniently shielded from feedback of the population which they nominally are hired to serve.
Political control (ie democratic control) is not value neutral.
Though the actual important bit is actually a quote from https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-the-new-su...
That last part isn’t true in my experience, but that makes it harder to solve: every procurement officer I’ve worked with has been very scrupulous about not favoring a vendor but they’re operating under rules for things like fairness and security which are hard to comply with. A huge company can hire a room full of people to document how they’re complying with everything but a startup is going to run into exactly the problem you described. The big guys all support this since it has the effect of limiting options without actually being illegal — who’s going to argue against risk reduction, right?
And owners have never lied about the superiority of their product, or what other people think.
Except that is pretty much all they do.
Maybe we've now built everything that's easy to build, and all that's left is the hard stuff.