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Comment by cloverich | Hacker News Reader

That doesnt make sense... interest rates have been low for a decade. Why would falling prices be predicted?

There's a general sense that housing is not affordable for the middle class who does not already own a home. You predict falling prices with the thought that it's not sustainable and some changes in public policy will occur, as we will not allow for middle class people to be unable to afford a home.

It is sustainable, though, if you don’t assume homeownership rates have to be constant-or-rising.

Supply remains constrained, now with people not wanting to take on higher interest rates.

Move rates are roughly 9-10% a year. I bet we see that a lot lower for this quarter and next few quarters.

I think this is generally correct. This is the situation in my area: Prices can never fall, because if the situation was such that prices would fall, no one sells. So there's basically little to nothing available, so buyers are stuck competing no matter the macroeconomic situation.

Even in ‘08 this was the case.

That’s why short sales, foreclosures, ‘mailing the keys in’, etc. were a thing.

With housing, it’s NEVER a thing that someone just sells at a loss just because.

They sell at a loss because they don’t have a choice, and the bigger the loss, usually because the less choice they have.

If labor market is still doing well, then there is little pressure. Usually that happens a bit later anyway - construction workers out of work because housing isn’t being built, or folks employed by tech workers get laid off because tech isn’t so sure about those bonuses, etc.

We’ll see though - maybe the fed will pull off a soft landing this time.

I just mean in a very general sense "just wait until the housing market collapses!" is a very common refrain, absent any evidence to prompt it.

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