Maybe! You have no way of knowing which ones.
> I'd be perfectly comfortable having anything that looks like a conspiracy theory hidden
To rephrase: you'd be happy to have anything that makes you feel like it's a conspiracy theory hidden from view. A perfect way to guarantee confirmation bias.
I suggest the alternative approach: if you aren't willing to keep an open enough mind to consider new evidence that challenges your assumptions, don't have an opinion.
> with enough evidence having accumulated for it to get covered in a non-mocking way by NYT or NPR or whatever
As a side note: if you think this is an objective standard for reliable evidence, you're in over your head. Just judging based on their commentary concerning topics in which I am an expert, neither is a reliable source of "blind faith" information. Danger, Will Robinson.
The claim 'today's "conspiracy theory" is tomorrow's verified fact' implies that you do know, or at least think you do. Which is it, do you have evidence confirming specific conspiracies or not? You vacillate between jaded confidence and wide-eyed ignorance whenever it looks like it will score you a conversational point, with no consistent model of the world behind your words. No wonder, because the consistent model of the world that works is "the vast majority (but not all) conspiracy theories are false", and that's the model you've decided to pick a fight with for some reason. Naturally your first response to a challenge is to flip the table and throw all the evidence on the ground.
I am pretty confident in my ability to prove that the Earth is round. I have sufficient faith that politicians do not harvest blood from babies to perform magic rituals. Many others and I do have some way of knowing which conspiracy theories will never be proven true.
Here's one to get you started: who blew up the Nord stream pipeline?
Your claim is that we have no way of discerning between "impossible" and "possible" conspiracy theories, which is wrong.
I literally have no opinion on the matter (see how that works?), but I know that it was a conspiracy, and now is an open debate.
I’m sure somewhere there is some arguing for hours that there is a vast conspiracy to insist the sky is blue, when it’s actually red.
"Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence."
If we could just get people who aren't informed to recognize that they're not informed and not have an opinion, that would be a huge win for civil discourse.
If your brain is so fragile that it can't listen to some guy on a podcast without being "infected", then you're gonna have a hard time.
Again, I'm not suggesting blind faith in dumb ideas. I'm not suggesting that you have to be an expert on anything. I'm suggesting that you have the will to say "I am not fully informed" when you don't know the answer.
On top of that the only thing most of us can say about almost everything under your rules would answered with 'I am not fully informed', shit, humanity isn't fully informed on anything.
Yes. Exactly.
I'm calling for more modesty, and less political vitriol driven by a fictional, exaggerated sense of certainty.
(Also, reinforcing that ideas cannot hurt you, which is an odd mental pathology that has become distressingly common as of late.)
I agree, but I think this falls into the category of "we've tried literally nothing and we're all out of ideas".
If someone is sitting on a pile of $, I think something quite effective (but oh, would it be controversial) could be built.
> I'm suggesting that you have the will to say "I am not fully informed" when you don't know the answer.
"The spirit (will) is willing (well, sometimes) but the flesh is weak". Free will, heuristics, and consciousness/reality are extremely complex topics. I believe very strongly that modern day people have this ability in similar quantities to the ability of people from 50 years ago to not be racist. It is innate, second nature, System 1, outside their control.
From below:
>> Eventually you have to trust someone with something.
You have to. While this is not logically, physically, necessarily true, I think this is literally true for most people, as a consequence of the evolved nature of consciousness, combined with culturally-ingrained norms, one of which is whether philosophy was a part of the educational curriculum one was exposed to... And even then, how good one is at it, in fact (which is typically inaccessible, thus imagined/simulated).
Another:
>> To you, the danger is not knowing that there are, in fact, lizard people controlling the government. To me, the danger is in ending up spending my free time poring over fringe lizard-people Twitter.
Also simulated. Sure, it's "just snark", "speaking colloquially", {excuse du jour}, but I wonder if the mind atrophies with lack of use like muscles do.
A problem: this is a razor that is useful for approximating what one believes to be true, it is not proper, strict epistemology.
Also: it only yields belief, not truth, because it doesn't even try for truth - rather, it advises against doing that.
Would be interesting to see what Carl would say in this context, as I presume he meant it in the context of science/physics, not metaphysics.
I have arguments now and then with people on Carl Sagan videos on tiktok, and it is eye opening how many science fans are utterly incompetent when it comes to epistemology and logic. With just a tiny bit of abstraction (removing the object level specifics of the claim), they are indistinguishable from religious fundamentalists in their confident incorrectness / epistemic-unsoundness.
In a perfect world, it would be fine, since science is highly trustworthy. Unfortunately, the world we live in is far from perfect, making it far less easy to determine how optimal the approach is.
And ironically, you would think that science minded people would understand and appreciate these complexities and their legitimate importance, however in my experience they tend to be the ones most averse to them.
Listening to everything everyone says can have its upsides, but filtering out noise is not one of them.
"Which ones are true" is far less relevant to my life than "which ones are relevant".
I simply have no use for the information about who blew up the Nord pipeline, or how covid started. I'll evaluate claims affecting issues relevant to my life.
The controversy of conspiracy theories is extremely powerful and is a distraction I choose to ignore, without evidence of contextual relevance that outweighs the low confidence in the evidence for the claim.
I don't, and I'm well aware of Gell-Mann amnesia, but I'm also not going to personally interview every witness of every event, or personally become an expert in every subject so as to be able to independently have a well-informed opinion about all of them. I accept that this means that sometimes I will not be perfectly informed, but even if it were possible to do all those things (and it isn't), it's not the way I would choose to spend my life. There are other ways to spend my time that I find more fulfilling, and I accept that that means outsourcing the work fact-finding to people who do it for a living, even if I know they're imperfect, and even if I know that at least in certain domains, I might be able to do it better if I tried.
> Danger, Will Robinson
To you, the danger is not knowing that there are, in fact, lizard people controlling the government. To me, the danger is in ending up spending my free time poring over fringe lizard-people Twitter. Personally I'm perfectly willing to accept the former danger to avoid the latter. I think we just have different priorities.
Its a news feed, but populated by journalists, governed by an editorial policy. No conspiracies, no misinformation, no spam. Just news.
But basically, we cant be a truth telling machine. We can, however, filter out the obvious noise and hold our journalist partners accountable if we find issues with their reporting. We speak with every reporter who onboards to the site, and reach out when needed.
That said, this is why we vet journalists as they come on. We cannot guarantee that no one will ever get something wrong, but we can limit how often it happens. On Twitter/HN/etc, anyone can post anything and face little to no consequences -- thats how trolling can happen. Journalists have bylines attached, and those mess ups can haunt them the rest of their careers. They don't want to get things wrong. We don't want them to get things wrong either. And if something is wrong, then we put out a correction.
What does this exactly mean?
I personally don't think a journalist is "held accountable" if all that's being done is an email to them asking for a correction or clarification in an article.
Any journalists who are interested should reach out -- https://journalists.forth.news