Are we sure GPT is going to improve 10x in 10 years? Hasn't it already been trained on the vast majority of available text data? We might get incremental improvements, but it's not like we have 10x more data lying around somewhere to feed GPT5.
GPT4 is basically Pong. Within a few years we will be nostalgic for its surprise value
HN has a God Complex when it comes to people like Carmack though, so you can't really survive disagreeing with him