Chrome supports HTML5, and there are a lot of Chrome installs out there.
Do you have a source for that? Interesting in seeing.
I just looked up analytics of a very popular website (13M monthly)
Flash is supported by 93% of the visitors.
HTML5 = 50%.
A more interesting question is HTML5 penetration in your target market - rather than general usage, it would be interesting to look at the analytics from an established Flash Gaming site.
Stats from igre123.net (flash gaming site) we run: about 1.5m uniques/month: chrome: 38%, firefox (mostly v8&v9) 37%, IE 20% (v8 62%, v9 23%, v7 9% & v6 4%). So >80% HTML5. I can't find data for flash it the new analytics. But last time I checked (when I was stil able to) it was high, almost 100%.
Which website? That can make a huge difference. Audience, demographics, country etc can all lead to a huge bias on the results.