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Comment by paganel | Hacker News Reader

This, among other things, will be the death of this trade union.

The technocrats in Brussels are way out of their mind if they think the average European citizen will be able to afford purchasing a new EV in 10 years, and then to purchase a battery/a new EV every other 8-10 years.

And then they'll complain of how come the "populists are taking our votes!".

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Carmakers in general (all the ones that matter, anyway) don’t even plan to produce any combustion cars by 2035.

I’m not sure where you are getting it from that this isn’t happening. I mean, it has to happen. Also, E-Fuels aren’t an alternative since they are even more expensive.

In 2015 carmakers were planning to manufacture only self driving hybrids. So what you plan 12 years from now says nothing about what is going to be made 12 years from now.

> Carmakers in general (all the ones that matter, anyway) don’t even plan to produce any combustion cars by 2035.

I'm sure they have nice fluffy press releases about an EV future but look at the investments they're making.

They're all still investing in new gas engine architectures for commercial vehicles (so like minivans on up to medium duty trucks) because they looked at the state of diesel tech and emissions rules, looked at the state of gas engine tech and emissions rules and looked at the state of battery tech and decided that the box van of the future was gonna have a gas engine option.

Honda expects to continue producing combustion cars through 2040.

Let's very optimistically imagine that the cost of batteries will go down 75% (4 times) down in 12 years, given the current massive efforts in this area.

Will it make new EV cars massively cheaper? I think it's very improbable.

Will it make replacing worn-out batteries economically viable? I think there is hope.

12 years is a long time.

12 years ago, the $30k nissan leaf had a range of 85 miles in a 24kWh battery. A 2023 nissan leaf is $28k, with a 200+ mile advertised range and a 40kWh battery. If you're willing to inflation adjust a little, a $38k nissan leaf today comes with a 60 kWh battery.

12 years before that, we're talking about cars getting 30mpg running on Petrol/Diesel, and we were on euro 2 standards. 12 years is an eternity in technology.

12 years regarding infrastructure is nothing. Just a blip. And you want to significantly increase consumption of electricity, while not building any new power plants, nor upgrading grid.

You can be concerned about infrastructure changes but bullish on technology improvements in EVs.

This article [0] (apolgoies but I'm in the UK so not familiar with the state in the US) talks about the energy mix in 2010 (13 years ago, so close). Wind power could support up to 5.4 GW in 2010 in the UK, and by various sources itcan now do ~25GW. (Today is a strange day, there's a cold snap and we've fired up backup coal stations for the first time in years.).

Grid infrastructure, and consumer interaction with supplier has had enormous changes in that time. In the last 12 months, suppliers have started running schemes where they adjust demand by paying you to reduce usage during peak times [1], introducing day ahead tarriffs [2], and rollig out smart meters which provide usage in 30 minute windows. There are power diverters, and various devices available which hook up to live pricing, and can decide what to do at various points in the day, e.g. divert your solar PV into heating your hot water tank rather than selling it back to the grid.

The movement here _is_ slower, but it _is_ happening.

[0] https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/...

[1] https://octopus.energy/saving-sessions/

[2] https://octopus.energy/help-and-faqs/articles/what-is-a-flex...

[3]

This all looks great on the paper. And then things like this happen: https://theconversation.com/what-europes-exceptionally-low-w...

The reality of reliance on fossil fuels is https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/consumer/price-diesel-hit... and 3.5x hikes in natural gas prices for domestic uses in a year.

I do'nt really understand the point you're making. From the article you've shared,

> Combining wind with other renewable resources such as solar, hydropower and the ability to smartly manage our electricity demand will be critical at times like this summer when the wind is not blowing.

Which is pretty much exactly what is happening. We're wind heavy because it makes sense to be here, but if we were closer to the equator it would make sense to be solar heavy, for example.

The parent post made absolutely none of the claims you assert they "want".

So parent post is not arguing for BEVs?

For the cost of upgrading EVs to better / cheaper batteries. That is, the ability of a EU citizen to afford an EV car that lasts comparably long with an ICE car.

The charging infrastructure is a fun issue, but it's a separate issue.

I would kind of argue, that BEVs without infrastructure are useless.

This is true, but I don't have an idea how viable are plans to drastically extend it. Large numbers of EVs consuming each 300-300 kW during charging will quickly put the current urban electrical infrastructure to its knees.

| while not building any new power plants, nor upgrading grid.

Parent post makes none of the above claims. You're creating a straw-man.

BEVs and infrastructure are connected together. Arguing for BEVs while ignoring infrastructure is being a demagogue

> Will it make replacing worn-out batteries economically viable? I think there is hope.

I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again: only if a skunkworks effort takes place to reverse engineer and open source the low-level controllers/ECUs in these vehicles. Manufacturers have no incentive to reduce the “planned obsolescence” EV cars come with by design today. If you want to use future battery tech in a car of today’s vintage, you’re not going to get a manufacturer-sanctioned option.

BEV is already "there" at/below the average selling price of a new car in the US. Heck, they're practically there at the lowest selling price.

Compare how much “car” you get for the dollar, though. People are in their cars for one-and-half hour commutes twice a day. It matters.

Those who would be able to afford purchasing a new ICE in 10 years will be able to afford purchasing a new EV in 10 years, the difference isn't significant.

Those who wouldn't be buying a new car in 10 years, won't - nobody is taking away the existing cars, they'll keep using them until they can or need a new car, and that one will be an EV.

Over the lifetime of the car, EV cars are already cheaper than ICE cars (lower maintenance, fuel costs, etc).

I would argue that isn’t over the lifetime of the vehicle but over the lifetime of the manufacturer warranty.

I'm still missing an answer on how are we supposed to source all the minerals like lithium, copper, etc, without an increase in the usage of petrochemicals and keeping it carbon neutral.

Why do you think we'll still be using Lithium for batteries in the future? There might be better technologies up ahead.

So that's your plan, waiting on a miracle?

No miracle is needed:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sodium-ion_battery

The sodium-ion battery (NIB or SIB) is a type of rechargeable battery that uses sodium ions (Na+) as its charge carriers. Its working principle and cell construction are almost identical with those of lithium-ion battery (LIB) types, but replace lithium with sodium.

You can buy a car with this battery type already:

https://www.caixinglobal.com/2023-02-27/volkswagen-jac-ventu...

Was going to say this. Sodium batteries are looking extremely interesting.

I wonder if the pool table makers were asking this question when we banned Elephant hunting.

It looks like Nio is going to use solid-state batteries from 2024 onward. That seems pretty tangible to me. BMW and Ford are said to be working on integrating batteries of this type, too. No miracles necessary.

Simple: feed Africa so they create more children to work in lithium and cobalt mines.

>Simple: feed Africa

We already do [0].

[0] https://www.wfp.org/

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