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Comment by ozmodiar | Hacker News Reader

I've never heard this take, even while in Taiwan. They aren't deluded, they know they aren't retaking the mainland. The reason they don't declare themselves a country is because China won't support it and they're worried it would trigger an invasion. China prefers Taiwan be a rebellious province rather than an independent country because it strengthens China's claim to the island. The KMT used to be feeling out a HK like integration with China but I think that's even more dead than it used to be.

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>> The Taiwanese faction supporting unification (usually the KMT) does not envision a world where Taiwan is/becomes a province of the PRC, they envision a world where the ROC governs all current PRC provinces, that is where they are in the seat of power in Beijing.

> I've never heard this take, even while in Taiwan. They aren't deluded, they know they aren't retaking the mainland.

I wouldn't be surprised if that's still the KMT's "official" position, and it's probably one they genuinely held for a long time after they retreated to Taiwan. The Taiwan issue is interesting, because China's power and sensitivity means literally none of the important players except China officially says what they really mean, and maintain these ridiculous diplomatic fictions to avoid crossing China's lines.

China absolutely does maintain its own diplomatic fictions.

For example, a Taiwanese person travelling to the PRC needs a "Mainland travel permit for residents of the island of Taiwan", which is most emphatically neither a visa nor a passport despite fulfilling exactly those two functions.

Your impressions are all true, but Taiwan hasn't given up formal claim to mainland China.

This is important because it allows the "policy of deliberate ambiguity":

> There is deliberate ambiguity regarding the government of the country of 'China' (as well as what land this country constitutes). Currently, two governments claim legitimate rule and sovereignty over all of China, which they claim includes Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan, as well as some other islands.

> those from Taiwan who attend the Olympic Games and other various international organizations and events participate under the deliberately ambiguous name of "Chinese Taipei"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Policy_of_deliberate_ambiguity

>China prefers Taiwan be a rebellious province rather than an independent country because it strengthens China's claim to the island.

I'm pretty sure that the Chinese government is actually scared shitless that Taiwan declaring independence would reinvigorate independence movements in Hong Kong, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and probably half a dozen more.

A new civil war in China would make WWII look like a minor scuffle.

> I'm pretty sure that the Chinese government is actually scared shitless that Taiwan declaring independence would reinvigorate independence movements in Hong Kong, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and probably half a dozen more.

Why would they be "scared shitless"? They've demonstrated the ability to crack down hard and defeat those movements. For instance: the Hong Kong protests ended almost immediately once China decided to take the gloves off.

A good long look at the history of Chinese civil wars should be enough to scare anyone.

Maybe they could control simultaneous large scale insurrections. But it would be wise not to be overconfident in that regard.

> Maybe they could control simultaneous large scale insurrections. But it would be wise not to be overconfident in that regard.

Why do you think they'd have to deal with any "large scale insurrections"? They easily delt with one HK, once they imposed a Mainland-style security law, because fear evaporated the protests. Those protests also didn't inspire much of a response in the Mainland. They also didn't have to deal with on in Xinjiang, where they implemented so much direct oppression that you'd think they'd have inspired a response if one were possible.

The PRC security apparatus is strong, well organized, and its actions aren't constrained by liberal sensibilities. The PRC population is thoroughly disarmed, disorganized, and dis-informed, so cannot resist it. I think you're indulging in wishful thinking and fantasy.

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