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Comment by dylanzhangdev | Hacker News Reader

As a developer in China, I am re-strengthening my English, and I hope to have the opportunity to find a job in Japan and immigrate. I want free access to information and I want my daughter to have a life of safety and choice. Before the COVID, I didn't have this idea. After the COVID is over, I can't wait to leave. I'm pessimistic about the future here. As a small, ordinary person, I can't change anything, I can only change myself.

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As an entrepeneur, I left Russia last year, later than I should have, sooner than I could have. I also have a child and that was not the place I would want any child to grow up in, even if homeschooled (we tried). It's hard at first, but doable, new friends, networks, of course resentment/nostalgia, but part of being a responsible human being looking after another.

As for changing China from within, I can empathize fully [1].

1. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/03/01/russia-child...

I don't think you're alone, considering child births dropped in halve in China.

They can not protest, but that seems to signify a severe drop in confidence in the government.

As a reference, in the West, child births exploded in COVID.

If you want to talk sometimes, let me know. I'm interested about what's it like there at the moment ( and you can practice your English in the mean time).

Ps. Just mentioning, as everywhere, CCP could be monitoring here. It's a popular site...

"As a reference, in the West, child births exploded in COVID."

Did they really? Looks to me like they've remained static at extremely low levels. The decline since 2009 has been arrested, but that actually happened around 2018, and they haven't really recovered even to replacement rate.

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/fert...

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/GBR/united-kingdom/fer...

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/DEU/germany/fertility-...

Fertility rate isn't pregnancies

https://ifstudies.org/blog/surprising-new-evidence-of-a-mode...

As a reference, in the West, child births exploded in COVID.

Casualization != correlation. People banged a lot back then as they were stuck in home with money in their pockets and nothing to do outside, and getting cheap loans for real estate was not a problem, so having kids didn't seem like a bad decision, not because they had more confidence in their government. Though during covid and lockdowns a lot of couples also broke up.

This trend has rapidly came to a halt in 2022 to 2203, with the war in Ukraine, inflation, high mortgage rates, insane energy bills, high food prices, exploding costs of rents and buying real estate, unavailable housing, longer waiting times in the healthcare system and a shortage of staff, layoffs, hiring freezes or stagnating wages in the private sector, etc.

With the way things happened last in the last 12 months, average people really lost hope in the government, the economy and in the future and aren't rushing to have kids at all.

Though I'm only talking about Europe, not "the west". Maybe things might be different elsewhere like US, Canada or Australia.

Most people didn't bang with strangers in COVID because of restrictions, i remember just after COVID very well what the consequence was :p

Couples decided in COVID to go for the first kid ( or subsequent). The ones that banged for boredom still use protection... Having a kid is a choice here, not something that just happens. People have protection ;)

You're just affirming my statement.

Since the war in Ukraine ( after COVID) it dropped, it comes from insecurity.

So, those in China are insecure too, for the reason I stated.

Note : i didn't verify numbers, just explained the sentiment.

China's birth rate has experienced a serious decline, but as the economy recovers, people may become more confident in a few years. The government is also encouraging childbearing, but I think the main problem is that the cost of getting married (house, car) and raising children is too high. As a 1980-1990 generation, the general idea is to have multiple children, especially in countryside and small towns. Most of my elementary school and high school classmates in my hometown have 2 children, and a few have 3 children. But personally, my wife and I have absolutely no intention of having a second child.

Thanks for the info.

I was aware of the raised limit ( one - child policy -> 2 and now 3), fyi.

I would guess that their last child wasn't born in the last years, but eg. Before or at the start of COVID? ( Raw guess)

There will be a lot less during the pandemic, and there is only one example next to me. But I estimate that it will increase later. As for how many children a family has, it is not too related to economic conditions, but more to the perception of both husband and wife, pressure from parents, or the influence of people around you (if your friends and colleagues around you have two children, and everyone advises you to have another one, you are likely to change your mind, especially in villages and small towns). In big cities, relationships are a little simpler. ）

Yes, not according to what I'm aware of, population is moving more and more to big cities.

If I'm understanding it correctly, it means that the social pressure decreased too?

Fertility rate dropped because its long trend, at least in EU. Ukraine is not a problem (if you dont read news), inflation cause worries for families much more.

https://www.humanfertility.org/Data/STFF

Also, something else caused overall fertility drop rate in 2022, but that is another topic.

https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/more-natality-data-from-o...

A child boom != fertility rate.

Some years ago, Chinese immigrants came to Japan and were looked down upon as cheap labour. Nowadays, Chinese investors are buying the best real estate in Japan, and Chinese tourists are the main customers of the luxury brand shops in Omotesando.

Japan is a country where each generation is poorer than the generation before. In China, you can give your kids a better life than the one you had.

This kind of argument is very common in China's Internet comment areas, but it is also easy to refute. China's GDP is higher than that of Japan. It has experienced rapid growth in the past few decades, while Japan has lost 30 years. However, as an ordinary individual, what I want to say is who care? I did not share the dividends of the so-called high-speed GDP growth, but only suffered the inflation of housing prices and prices. May I ask the Chinese who can go overseas to consume the luxury goods you mentioned, what class do they or their parents belong to? I have nothing to do. I never thought Japan would be a perfect country, but I also don't think Japan will become poorer from generation to generation. As an individual, I don't care about the grand narrative, I don't care about the international economy, I just want to live in a free Internet, clean food and air, my children can choose not to compete so hard Just live a normal life.

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