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Comment by tenpies | Hacker News Reader

The mind-boggling side for me is that the West is obsessed with Apple leaving China, but never bothers to check where all the EV manufacturers are. Even Tesla, without the Shanghai factory, would probably be doomed.

If I had to put money on which EV company becomes the next major car company of the world, I would almost certainly bet that it's going to be a Chinese one.

So sure, while a stagnant industry that is no longer growing may leave and that sucks, but the next huge growth industry is firmly entrenched in China and dependent on Chinese companies.

Tales of China's demise are grossly exaggerated.

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Tesla is building its next major factory in Mexico https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/01/business/tesla-mexico-plant/i..., that's how much Elon believes in China.

> If I had to put money on which EV company becomes the next major car company of the world, I would almost certainly bet that it's going to be a Chinese one.

Do you mean WM motor? one of the most promising startup https://www.autonews.com/china/wm-motor-pay-cuts-layoffs-sig... where at least 20 percent of WM Motor’s workforce has been laid off since November?

or Didi/Li auto venture? https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/chinas... which declared bankruptcy?

or Nio, whose stock was as high as $62, now below $10?

or BYD, whose stock has been offloaded by Warren Buffet by 1/3 since august of last year?

or China's car industry as a whole https://www.marklines.com/en/statistics/flash_sales/automoti..., whose production dropped 35% and sales dropped 34% in January 2023?

And why would a Chinese car company not be sanctioned/outlawed relating to the CHIP act, or something similar out of Europe?

I know nothing about EVs so I wouldn't be able to tell whether you're right or not, but

> or BYD, whose stock has been offloaded by Warren Buffet by 1/3 since august of last year?

Arguing that a company would fail because Warren Buffet no longer holds their stock seems a bit weak. Berkshire Hathaway doesn't hold a lot of stocks, but you wouldn't say most public companies are doomed to fail. And Berkshire doesn't hold any Telsa stock either.

In any case you might want to revisit your assumptions: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/15/charlie-munger-says-byd-is-f...

Tesla building in Mexico has a lot more to do with the EV subsidy requirements from the IRA than it has to do with China.

> Even Tesla, without the Shanghai factory, would probably be doomed.

That makes no sense whatsoever: all the Teslas (Model 3/Y) produced in the Shanghai plant are meant to be sold in China. Without the Shanghai factory, Tesla wouldn't have much of a Chinese business, BUT it wouldn't affect at all its production capacity for the rest of the world.

The only EVs made in China that are being sold in the USA ATM are the Volvo/Polestar EVs made in Luqiao. There is a huge tax on that (into the USA from China, likewise for cars coming into China from the USA), even BYD opened a factory in california to get around that for their EV bus production (and Tesla's Shanghai plant exists for preferential tax treatment in China, which is a no brainer business move).

Only 60% of Chinese made Teslas are sold in China.

https://insideevs.com/news/630002/china-tesla-ev-sales-decem...

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