Debian shows that actually solving real problems well is a valid way to approach open source software over the long term.
I first got into Linux years ago, before Ubuntu really existed. At the time, Debian was really awesome. It solved the biggest problem at the time: installing, updating, and removing software on *nix systems.
By contrast, Redhat had rpms, but they sucked. I still, to this day, have a difficult time figuring out how to do /anything/ with packages on anything derived from redhat. What is up2date? what is yum? where does the rpm command it? why aren't all of these documented well?
I think ultimately the rise of Debian illustrates the conflict of interests that comes from certifications. Making your software easier to use makes certifications less valuable, after all.