There's no escaping geopolitics and open source is part of it. It would be foolish of China, India, Russia and much of the non-colonized world to rely on american dominated open source/tech/etc.

> then we would risk the possibility of a fork forming around geopolitical lines.

The world's forked.

In the short term, it'll be bad for open source, but over the long term, I think it'll be a net positive as it'll lead to more diversity ( linguistically, culturally, etc ) in the open source ecosystem. The more forks the better.