I’m talking about the Demcoratic nomination contest, not the general election, but even in the latter case I would expect prediction markets odds of victory more than a year out to have very weak, if any correlation, to margin of victory. Heck, I don’t know of any research showing that prediction markets far from elections are even good at predicting odds.

Meh, if you look at the Candle for 90d you can see the high/low for Nov3,4th of the 2020 election [1]. There's so much volatility in that data its hard it's hard to consider this an accurate predicator for 2024.

The volume for 2024 is also so low compared to 2020 so I don't think you can use the current 2024 predictions as evidence.

[1]: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3698/Who-will-win-t...

dragonwriter was talking about the Democratic primary.

A lot can happen in 600 days