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Comment by dragonwriter | Hacker News Reader

The 2024 changes, inasmuch as they are about specific elections and not the general long-term arc of the party, are about 2028 more than 2024. No one is expecting a significantly contested nominating contest when the party has an incumbent President seeking reelection.

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The prediction markets on PredictIt have the Democrats winning at 52 cents, and the Republicans at 50 cents. You should expect the election to be quite close.

dragonwriter was talking about the Democratic primary.

I’m talking about the Demcoratic nomination contest, not the general election, but even in the latter case I would expect prediction markets odds of victory more than a year out to have very weak, if any correlation, to margin of victory. Heck, I don’t know of any research showing that prediction markets far from elections are even good at predicting odds.

Meh, if you look at the Candle for 90d you can see the high/low for Nov3,4th of the 2020 election [1]. There's so much volatility in that data its hard it's hard to consider this an accurate predicator for 2024.

The volume for 2024 is also so low compared to 2020 so I don't think you can use the current 2024 predictions as evidence.

[1]: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3698/Who-will-win-t...

A lot can happen in 600 days

Incumbents do have an advantage, but I wouldn't say they aren't expecting a significant contested election. Trump was the incumbent, and it was a pretty aggressively contested.

> Incumbents do have an advantage, but I wouldn’t say they aren’t expecting a significant contested election

I’ve clarified the grandparent: I was referring to the nominating contest (the aggregate of primary elections and caucuses that are addressed by the schedule change being discussed), not the general election.

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