It is kind of interesting that the media seems to be softballing this. Usually their MO for this kind of disaster is hype, hype, hype, and sensationalism. Under most models of how the media works, this ought to be front page day & night, and if anything should be getting overestimated rather than under. Any internal mental model of how the media works that fails to integrate this should be getting challenged, and I'm still not sure how to do it myself. I can just see there's definitely a strong data point here.