Would you trust unions over markets to determine which programmers are skilled? How would they determine that?
Given that “the market” seems to have settled on LC as the only measure of skill I don’t think it’s far fetched to imagine that a guild system could be better.
That’s not true and I suspect you know it.
However, just because you’re in the guild does not mean you have a job. Productions still have to hire and choose to work with you. Generally, if you don’t get work within sometime between 1-2 years you lose membership.
If you’re not “skilled enough” for the minimum floor pay, then the studio or show has no obligation to hire you. Don’t see why that model can’t work for tech?