If pilots/dispatchers can't get current NOTAMs, the aircraft can't safely depart - especially if they're flying IFR. There's no way around it.

(One could argue about whether it's legal for general aviation traffic to depart VFR - the regs say you need "all available information", and the information isn't available. But that's arguing semantics.)

There was a NOTAM outage about a year ago where Leidos' (the Flight Service contractor in the lower 48) computer system failed and prevented entering new notices, but as a backup they were able to call Alaska FSS on the phone. Since Alaska's FSS is still run by the federal government and used a different computer system, their system was still online.

But in this case the outage is on the FAA's (upstream) side.

Are you saying the FAA is not telling the truth? What evidence do you have to believe this is a conspiracy, rather than simply an unusual event?

I’m sure there have been many technical problems in all of the FAA’s systems in 20 years. And, yes, none have caused a full ground stop. But you seem to doubt it happened because it hasn’t happened before.

Something to keep in mind is the NOTAM system never had an outage like this in those 20 years. And a full ground stop in the event of no one getting NOTAMs is completely reasonable.

So, I think you’re only left with two options: 1. NOTAM system went down by natural failure 2. NOTAM system was taken down intentionally to cause a full ground stop.

I’ll consider them independently then compare. Option 1 to me seems incredibly likely given a long enough timeline. It’s easy to say now in retrospect, but I think an 80% probability of a multi hour outage over 20 years is my best guess. These systems mostly go back to the 60s and are held together with bailing wire and bubblegum.

Option 2 is a hell of a blast radius for not much effect. You want to secretly keep an airplane from flying for a few hours so you… ground every plane in the US? There seem to be easier ways to go about that. Maybe you want no one to be in the air for a few hours? The motivations that would require that are beyond “special operations mission” and into “testing alien technology” territory. I’m not sure this even achieved the goal of putting everyone on the ground. It may have only been takeoffs.

Anyway, I think this comparison is hard. I mean, it’s easy for me. 80% on 1, 0.1% on 2, so 800:1.

But it’s probably hard to change someone’s mind about this. You either think the government is willing to ground every plane in the US for a few hours and lie about it plus has motivation to do so or you don’t. I’m probably not going to sway many people with the argument “yes, these systems are essential and yes, they are shitty” but maybe I will.