No, its “the occurrence of a rare event is an indication of the existence of the conditions in which that event occurs in that time and place, so if you have evidence that such an event has recently occurred, you should treat the place where it did as a place where that kind of event has an elevated likelihood of occurring”, which is far more specific and actionable than “better safe than sorry”.
This is a lovely example of HN pedanticism.
The English word is pedantry, not pedanticism.
It's not pedantimums to complain that you're swapping in a completely different moral.