Instead of price history look at utility history: It’s never been anything other than a speculative asset or a temporary medium of exchange for criminals. There’s no future here.
Future returns on BTC cannot be compared to the S&P!
Future returns on BTC cannot be compared to the S&P!
Do you believe a popular pyramid scheme has demonstrated utility? If a pyramid scheme made people a lot of money in the past does that suggest it has long term value?
I do speculate that part of the appeal of a non-loan/investment based store of value to very rich people is that hey wish they could keep all their wealth in a vehicle that didn’t involve investing in the overall good of society, but that is a childish wish - wealth is inextricably linked with the prosperity of the society in which it is enmeshed. A billionaire in a society ravaged by disease, hunger, and conflict, shorn of the comforts of science and technology, will be poorer by far, in terms of objective measures, than a billionaire in a society where the people are educated and science and medicine are widely available, especially over he generations.
That's why NFTs are not scarce even though they are unique.
Personally I would also wish that billionaires kept their wealth in things unrelated to the real world. Because when they put it in the real world they hike up the price for everybody by creating illusion of demand that really isn't there because they won't use what they bought.
(1) - If you buy bitcoin now you might be part of increasing the price of a bitcoin by increasing its rarity through the means of losing your private keys. But this doesn't benefit you.
(2) - We're reaching the point where our carrying capacity is starting to hit limits. Maybe in a few hundred years we'll have space colonies to keep increasing the population, but: 1) This won't benefit you, as you probably won't be around then; 2) There will be other collectibles that the then population may be more interested in. It is the case that certain collectibles are incredibly rare (single digit numbers), but also cost less then $10k, simply because there are not that many interested collectors.
(3) - If you sink most of your investments into crypto this limits the ability of your wealth to grow outside of your collection.