> The only reliable gauge I’ve found for future programmer success is looking at real code they’ve written, talking through bigger picture issues, and, if all that is swell, trying them out for size.

I agree with the latter. This is how I used to hire programmers, one month on a freelance contract first with a single project. The importance of the code itself is also overrated IMHO. It's just one tiny part of someone you add to your team, what about creativity, taking initiative, never giving up, being a team player, etc. Each of them are equally important to plain coding skills.