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Comment by echelon | Hacker News Reader

These are early days. Everything is going to move faster than you can keep up. You'll see head-turning headlines on a daily basis.

Next year will see AI begin to disrupt so many businesses you'd thought were absolutely impenetrable. I don't think anything is safe anymore.

By the end of the decade, I think even manufacturing and robotics will be automated. Everyone from McDonalds to Apple and Ford will feel the pressure.

I've got a mind-blowing demo coming out soon that will put even more fields on notice. And that's just my team. There are so many people working on AI-first products now. Incumbents will be overwhelmed and washed away.

(If ever there was a cue for a career change or opportunity to make a whole lot of money, it's this. Don't ignore this one! You're still early enough to take advantage.)

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I'm not questioning the AI revolution, I'm questioning the applicability of large generative language models to information retrieval. We need a different kind of model for that, not just a few tweaks here and there to this one.

Given everything we've seen in the last year alone, I'd not gamble against that kind of model being just around the corner.

I can think up architectures I could draw on a napkin that could do this. Focused research teams will nail this.

It's coming.

/r/iamverysmart

>If ever there was a cue for a career change or opportunity to make a whole lot of money, it's this. Don't ignore this one! You're still early enough to take advantage.

Any suggestions on how to take advantage?

Dive into ML development?

Learn how to write prompts for AI engines?

Invest in AI companies? Sadly OpenAI is private, but Microsoft is a monetizing partner I guess (Copilot)

I'd take a lot of this with a fairly large helping of salt. This poster obviously has a vested stake in this direction of technology working out.

> Next year will see AI begin to disrupt so many businesses you'd thought were absolutely impenetrable

Why, because of LLMs in particular? What is the ground-breaking research that will be fueling an AI revolution?

> There are so many people working on AI-first products now. Incumbents will be overwhelmed and washed away.

Incumbents like Google have been doing AI for ages. Microsoft has a very important investment in OpenAI

> By the end of the decade, I think even manufacturing and robotics will be automated. Everyone from McDonalds to Apple and Ford will feel the pressure.

McDonald's, Apple or Ford sell products, not manufacturing services. They will be delighted if manufacturing is automated.

Well, there's one thing that humans are much better than robots for the forseeable future: Energy efficiency. Try building a robot that contains a general purpose AI and the motoric functions and sense as humans that runs on the energy of three meals.

Now of course humans want and need more than just 3 meals but still pretty good.

But if most of your work consist of interfacing with computers, you might be in trouble.

Also, since humans aren’t slaves, they do their own maintenance. And they don’t do exactly what you ask, which is good (when they do it’s called “working to rule” and is a kind of strike).

It’s very rare for automation to cause unemployment to the point it possibly never happened.

> (If ever there was a cue for a career change or opportunity to make a whole lot of money, it's this. Don't ignore this one! You're still early enough to take advantage.)

Details?

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