Hacker News Reader

> * Twitter users will massively migrate to a new social network (and it won't be Mastodon) like there was exodus from Tumblr to Twitter, and this social network will change ToS to allow NSFW (my bets are Instagram or TikTok)

Or Bluesky.

>* Twitter users will massively migrate to a new social network (and it won't be Mastodon) Maybe I am being too optimistic but it kinda seems like that a big chunk of twitter refugees will move to Mastodon. Maybe not all of them but a lot, like how right now Mastodon is slowly entering the mainstream as sites publish articles about it and many users are already switching to Mastodon. And how the other Twitter alternatives are barely talked about but Mastodon is being brought up as an alternative all the time.

Yes, Signal and Telegram were brought up during WhatsApp privacy changes "scandal" and to this day it is the largest IM. So nerds will go there but mainstream adoption will take years if ever.

> * Inflation and energy crisis will cause such a large social unrest in the west that one or two governments will be overthrown, betting on Europe, NZ or Australia

I'm curious why you think AU or NZ would have this happen. Both have robust processes for electing new governments, and despite what the news might tell you, the vast majority of people are fed and are not struggling to keep the lights on.

(I have no opinions on Europe in this matter)

This opinion and bet is based on just the news and HN, in comparison to the US and Canada. Don't take it as any hint, just me gambling.