Comment by b3nji | Hacker News Reader

Comment by b3nji | Hacker News Reader

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1. More people will slowly come to the realization that electric cars are not as effective as originally thought. As a result, the government may shift their focus to hydrogen-powered vehicles as a new alternative. Ideally, making people think about all the other none starters the government has lead them, and their taxes merrily into.

2. Some people will become aware that their money is not as valuable as it once was. The recession will hit, full force, possibly never seen before. In response, the governments may launch campaigns to promote the adoption of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) in order to address this issue. These campaigns may aim to generate interest, curiosity, and demand for CBDCs among the general public. This will lead people further into a permanent digital prison.

3. Bitcoin may reach new all-time highs due to increasing demand and adoption. It is also possible that some alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins) may suffer and potentially collapse due to market fluctuations or and insolvency. Maybe, some people will see that the fiat system is failing.

Hydrogen isn't going anywhere, the challenges are the same as battery with even worse distribution mechanisms.

This is true, I fear it won't stop the powers that be leading many down the hydrogen route though. Check out what the EU is chatting about it all right now.

> 1. More people will slowly come to the realization that electric cars are not as effective as originally thought. As a result, the government may shift their focus to hydrogen-powered vehicles as a new alternative.

I'm 100% thinking the same, but I can't help myself think how this will be a disastrous change in some countries. For instance in Europe, fuel-based cars will be banned in 2030 and governments are actively pushing for electric. I think it might create a huge shift on the electric vehicle market tho.

> > 1. More people will slowly come to the realization that electric cars are not as effective as originally thought. As a result, the government may shift their focus to hydrogen-powered vehicles as a new alternative.

> I'm 100% thinking the same, but I can't help myself think how this will be a disastrous change in some countries. For instance in Europe, fuel-based cars will be banned in 2030 and governments are actively pushing for electric.

> I think it might create a huge shift on the electric vehicle market tho.

It will likely be disastrous, and when they try to jump to hydrogen it will probably be disastrous too.

In my mind it will be a similar climb down to what the governments diesel push was in the U.K. Disastrous...

1. More people will slowly come to the realization that electric cars are not as effective as originally thought. As a result, the government may shift their focus to hydrogen-powered vehicles as a new alternative. Ideally, making people think about all the other none starters the government has lead them, and their taxes merrily into.

The large automakers have been building compliance cars for a decade because they think electric cars aren't quite ready yet. Who is thinking the original thought in your prediction?

Isn't Toyota thinikg this, and has said so much already?

Not challenging your prediction, but what is the argument in favour of a CBDC in that scenario? How would it be marketed?

Something along the line of stimulus money, they could say something like when we gave free money to people during covid, and a lot was stolen. With CBDC's we can protect you, and stop the bad people, it's highly secure and can't be used for bad things. Without CBDC's we can't give you the free money you badly need, the people that argue against CBDC's are bad, they want to stop you feeding yourself and family with the free money we want to give you.

The one prediction I've seen (not here) that I agree with is that the Model Y will be the highest selling vehicle in the world in 2023. But I don't disagree with you about BEVs. I think companies will focus on hybrids as much as BEVs.

Not a hope. Won't win the US market because of not being big enough, will do even worse worldwide because of the price tag.

So far the exact opposite is happening, although you are correct that being the top selling car in the US won't happen, just the world as a whole. It's a pretty easy prediction, as even if it is wrong it will still barely trail Toyota for the top selling spot, barring some significant disruption and reversal.

They come #1 in Norway and their next best showing is #3 in China, but plenty of large markets where they're way down the list (e.g. #49 in Spain, #40 in germany did not make rankings in Italy, Brazil, India).

https://www.drive.com.au/news/the-best-selling-cars-around-t...

Italy historical top 3 is always cheap city cars. Usually Fiat Panda which costs ~15k€ nowadays (used to be much less).

A 50K€ base model car as top 1 is a pipe dream. It'll happen when people can't buy cars anymore and all remains is the rich and robotaxis.

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