We had USSR split up 30 years ago, and it turned out quite well. Why assume making it happen again would result in something terrible?
And, after what's happened to Ukraine, none of the new states will give up their nukes. We'll have a nuclear armed Dagestan, run by whoever was aggressive enough to seize power.
(Cf https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1600551806429544452.html)
>Ethnicity, race and culture is not enough for the new states to work out. For them to succeed they must be able to pay their bills. Ergo, the principle of economic clusters will be at least as important for defining their borders as the ethnic or cultural one
Which one wins out? The fact that there is a conflict between economic cluster and ethnic cluster seems to strongly raise the likelihood of a civil war.