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Comment by jleyank | Hacker News Reader

This is going to require a whole lot of batteries, amps and cabling to move said amps. Can europe handle this? N America? Outside these regions? And what’s going to happen when the batteries need to be replaced?

And are all the ice cars going to be just left to die? Will people be reimbursed for their now-worthless scrap? Will companies and part suppliers survive the transition - they’re going to Osborne their product line!

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>> And are all the ice cars going to be just left to die? Will people be reimbursed for their now-worthless scrap? Will companies and part suppliers survive the transition - they’re going to Osborne their product line!

Are we just going to let all the horse and buggys to die? Will people be reimbursed for their now worthless horses? What about coach companies and horse feed suppliers?

It's a transition just like anything else. There likely will be some deaths to some parts companies, if they can't pivot. That's healthy, although painful.

Also, Audi makes ~1.7 million cars a year. Replacing those all with EVs is a much, much easier task than replacing something like VW that makes ~8-9 M/yr cars.

292 million passenger cars in EU versus 7,8 million horses - no wonder nobody gives a damn about horses yet people care a lot about car batteries.

edit: also, nobody taxed horse owners extra just to clear the way for cars.

> nobody taxed horse owners extra just to clear the way for cars.

What tax are you referring to?

There was no tax! People switched to cars simply because they wanted to, not because they were forced to. Whereas there is a tax levied on ICEs in many places.

Yes, I'm interested what those taxes on ICEs are that don't apply on EVs.

https://www.rac.co.uk/drive/electric-cars/running/do-electri...

https://www.acea.auto/fact/overview-electric-vehicles-tax-be...

(download the pdf for the full table)

That's not really what you claimed though

> nobody taxed horse owners extra just to clear the way for cars.

This implies an extra tax on ICE to make them switch to EV.

How about this:

https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/fiscal-instruments-fa...

"Examples from a number of countries show that this uptake can be enhanced by well-designed incentives and taxes."

"most European countries have based their vehicle taxation schemes on type-approval CO2 emission values and increased the number of incentives to purchase new electric vehicles."

To me it seems that ICE owners are taxed more compared to EV owners. I don't understand what exactly it is you argue against.

The same thing will happen to these ICE cars that has always happened to them. Demand wanes. Values decline. "Nicer" used ICE cars become available at a lower price. Owners can recover whatever value is left by selling at a time of their choice, like always.

Some folks will choose to keep ICE cars even after the majority have switched, and this is fine, too. At that point, parts, service, and fuel for those vehicles will be harder to obtain and more expensive. Modern batteries will be good until after most owners have already sold or traded the car, and battery swaps are fairly easy with "skateboard" type (modern) EV designs.

Will the market step up to provide access to charging, etc? Of course! There's money to be made and lots of it. Will ICE parts and service suppliers (or dealers) survive the change? No, most will not. Many of the most expensive and service-heavy parts of an ICE vehicle don't even exist on an EV, and most service will be done at home by a truck that visits your house. Likewise, EVs will not be stocked on lots like ICE cars are, so there goes a big chuck of the dealer sales/service model.

No one is going to toss out their ICE car as a long as you can still buy petrol. Manufacturers aren't going to physically be able to produce EVs much faster than they could produce ICE cars, so there will be a slow replacement as ICE cars get written off in crashes, or become uneconomical to repair with age

The lower cost of operation of an EV is quite an inducement to switch, and will leave many ICE cars behind as owners decide they are no longer desirable to own or drive. The range of electric car brands and options in Europe shows this to be true. EVs aren't just a new kind of car, they're better and cheaper to run.

That depends on the charging, the type of driving you do, and huge list of other factors (like peak vs non-peak charging)

It is in fact NOT universally true that EV is a lower cost of operation or TCO as a comparable ICE

Outside of some fringe scenarios, it's pretty hard to be worse in terms of cost of operation from an actual comparable ICE car. Even the slowest EV on the market is quite a bit more 'performance' oriented than something like a Prius... and if you start getting into faster cars (not even necessarily BMWs, but something like a top tier Accord), mpg drops accordingly down into the 30s and op cost goes back up.

Not really, for example the youtube channel Fast Lane truck did a simple towing test of the F150 Lightening and it cost them more per mile to charge at retail charging then it cost per mile to fill up with gas of a similar F150, and that was even with the inflated Gas Prices

Sure if you are only ever home charging, overnight, off peak then yea that will be cheaper than Gas

But if you have to use Fast Charging, from a retail station, chances are your cost to charge your EV will be pretty comparable to the cost of Gas.

Or as they get retrofitted with electric motors in an mass conversion incentive program.

This will never happen on any mass scale. Once cars get to about 10-15 years (depending on climate) it is not longer economically sensible to do certain repairs, eg engine swap. With EV conversions, it's the same - a lot of money creating a very subpar product - low range, low safety, unbalanced weight distribution, bolted on controls - all to keep a rusted frame and deteriorating upholstery going for a few more years.

EV conversions are a great idea for collectible cars / hobby cars. Classic VW Bug, Fiat 500s, etc.

I just read an article on ArsTechnica where companies are making synthetic gasoline from wind and solar power. What will happen if this takes off, I wonder?

Hopefully we would pump that synthetic gasoline down the old oil wells, as a form of carbon capture, leaving it all un-burned.

Converting 100% of production commences a transition. If 95% of Audi cars are scrapped within 15 years and other manufacturers follow similar schedules, that means the infrastructure change has to be 95% complete by 2038.

My guess is that other manufacturers will do much the same, and in the regions/countries where the infrastructure isn't updated by 2035, a lot of people will then buy used ICE scrap from more progressive areas instead of the new cars they might prefer.

This is happening in Norway now. Used ICE cars are getting bought up by foreigners and then shipped to for example Lithuania.

Sadly paywalled, but you get the gist: https://www-aftenbladet-no.translate.goog/okonomi/i/69P7w3/n...

The market for ICE vehicles is going to dramatically change moving forward. Don't buy an expensive ICE vehicle looking ahead if you want to minimize the risk of high depreciation. (of course, this is a generalized statement, and as EVs continue to develop, the areas where EVs still can't compete will still provide stable markets for ICE vehicles. As that changes, expect changes.)

I believe we can manage. Especially if Zinc-Sulfur batteries become a reality (with 4 times the capacity and based on commonly available metals).

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