Diversify.

You could analyze the financials of the companies you're looking at, and gauge their product fit and overall market. But you won't have the visibility as a casual investor to get the kind of information you need to make a genuinely informed decision on a company.

Since you're betting on ponies to some degree, it's wise not to go for broke on just one.

Sooner or later, every investor learns it's so much better to not try to beat the market. Trying to beat the market results in failure for the vast majority of investors: even some of the most informed ones. I would go with the SPY or VTI.

I know nothing and This is NOT financial advice.