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Comment by motohagiography | Hacker News Reader

If this is originating from Qatar, I would speculate this poll is the result of a bet. The Emir, or another royal family member offers to make Elon whole on his $40B investment if he is willing to put his future in the hands of his users/subjects. If Elon wins, the Emir pays out, maybe for a small equity stake, and if Elon loses, the Emir gets to pick the new CEO of Twitter, and probably buys a significant equity stake.

Entirely speculative, but in terms of what could make this poll a rational choice right now, that's the only rational one I could think up in the moment. Maybe I'm absurdly wrong, but it's more interesting to treat people as rational and intelligent than as cartoon villans.

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A fun theory, but these kind of mental exercise to re-interpret an irrational decision as rational, repeatedly for certain individuals, seems frighteningly familiar.

Not everything is 4-D chess. Sometimes unforced errors are just that.

Sometimes they are, but this isn't the category of error you make at that level of risk. Theorizing about rationality is no less rigorous than standing him up as a hate figure though, but it's a lot more interesting.

- "but this isn't the category of error you make at that level of risk." People do make all types of errors at all levels of risk. I often see comments in the vein of "He spent 44 billion dollars, I'm sure he has a plan", as support for theories that give Elon more credit, in terms of intelligence or capability. There are countless examples of humans through history throwing away fortunes or destroying kingdoms over petty spats, or out of ego, or stupidity, or for no discernable reason at all. I don't think giving powerful people the benefit of the doubt in this way is a good idea. It lends support to the idea that they're more rational in general (because all their choices likely have higher risk, they have more to lose after all), and from there it would be easy to argue that they deserve their power and should have more.

The news this morning is the poll result means he will be hiring someone to replace him, which is likely a win for all involved. It's going to take some time, and he can make some of the necesary changes in the mean time. Twitter is not an institution, it's a rigged slot machine that pays out in temporary fame. Most complaints I see about Musk are backbiting, and I find it lowering and exacerbating to that kind of attitude.

Reminds me of Cameron's brexit referendum

Or he has already decided to step down (or was forced to by his investors), knows how the poll will turn out, and is creating the illusion that the masses have a say in it.

If he wants to stay, he'll game the poll, right?

This bet would maybe make Elon Musk look more rational, but overall, it requires the Emir to look a bit weird. So I don't see how it would be an overall improvement?

Is the actual point of the bet to prove billionaires have too much money?

love it. The Emir right now could use a megaphone to deal with those pesky Belgians.

Either that or he’s just drunk.

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