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Comment by neilv | Hacker News Reader

> It became the new normal, and the generation that entered Wall St. during this time is now disoriented, for they “do not know a world without cheap money.” [...] Whenever people are humbled by the melting away of things they took for granted, now that’s a topic worth exploring.

I'm trying to figure out parallels and implications for tech jobs.

Where in tech jobs will be first to decide they need to "rediscover the ways of our ancestors", and willing to pay to speed that up.

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Low interest rates created a preference for subscription models over up-front sales. It may have felt like the transition to cloud software and subscription pricing was due to technology shifts or mobile phones, but it was probably driven by interest rates.

If higher interest rates stay around for the long term, it's quite possible that tech going forward will be a little more like the '90s: An up-front sticker price, plus an extra charge for support. Ad funding (as a continuous revenue stream) may also get somewhat less powerful, but will still be a big deal.

Given how subscription models are also pushed down the throat of consumers, who do not want them, I would believe that the love for ARR plays an even bigger role.

I feel that a lot of startups would never be possible in a low interest rate environment. If you were trying to start Uber today and told investors that you'll lose money on every ride for fifteen years straight, and that you will burn through $35 billion without showing a profit, you will likely be laughed out the building.

I think you mean a high interest rate environment? Higher interest rates mean more risk?

Also, when they started, I don't think Uber told their investors they'd burn through $35 billion and lose money on every ride...

I'm waiting for the inevitable swing back from the Clouds to colos and dedicated DCs. Eventually, the cost difference is going to get a bunch of CTOs twitching.

I mean, the fact that "cost engineering" is an often used term these days makes me sad.

In the background, it's already happening for test and dev environments.

The technical term is "repatriation" and I can tell you those snowballs coming from S3 to your onsite aren't just for looks ;)

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