Many analysts predicted RU/UKR war 10+ years ago just on premise of NATO encroachment without factoring in demographics. Fact they executed a special operation on the cheap with a few 100,000 men reflect they weren't preparing for last major war before demographic window closes. Arguably with how much unmanned platforms have proliferated, RU could have waited even longer.
>Chinese demographics isn’t just worst than the US. It’s one of the worst in the world with a sudden decline in working age population in the upcoming 1-2 decades, while at the same time not having first world economies.
Naive analysis of demographic pyramid, especially with respect to great powers competition, for which I'd argue PRC has probably the most potent demographic trend in recorded human history: 1) PRC is generating as much STEM / high skilled talent as OECD countries combined, and magnitude more than US can absorb via births + immigration even with low TFR. Hence all the news in recent years of PRC closing academic, S&T gap and moving up value chain. 2) reduction in absolute population numbers = less import dependencies and more strategic flexbility. Meanwhile Chinese households has some of highest savings rates while industry has high automation adoption to weather population decline vs west whose onerous first world safety nets that are likely not sustainable long term. More skilled people + even less unskilled people for country has excess people wants to reduce net resource imports = recipe for improving strategic competitiveness.
Also note that developed PRC coastal region are functionally first world economies with capacities that are rapidly closing gap with US+co. The useful lens to evaluate PRC demographics is that roughly every decade for the next several decades, the internal talent mix is replacing a Nigeria with a Japan, sure less aggregate people, but more skilled people, still a substantial amount with PRC pop denominator. And people who structure their finances without expectation of first world welfare coverage. That gives PRC better demographic trend vs US for closing relative strength gap for strategic competition in the coming decades.
A more broader comment on Zeihan is outside of US, he is a generalist and rarely know enough about the POLITCS to really credibly comment on global geoPOLITICS. Like imagine trying to sell his audience US is blessed with river networks and deep coasts for ports and then neglect to mention PRC actually has the most navigable river networks and advanced ports. That's the politics in geopolitics. Politics can shape geography and demography which apart from very extreme cases, are far from destiny.