Comment by janalsncm | Hacker News Reader

Comment by janalsncm | Hacker News Reader

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ChatGPT is entertaining because it can pump out low impact content at essentially zero cost. A poem about global warming in the style of Shakespeare? No problem. The world wasn’t hanging on its every word, but that’s ok. I think we are all richer for having this capability. I see it as analogous to having a vase of flowers. It’s a nice thing to have even if the flowers are imperfect.

ChatGPT doesn’t worry me though, at least not yet. It’s not reliable enough to do most things people will pay for. Can it write some python code? Sure, and sometimes quite impressively. But too much of the time it’s wrong. And as long as that continues to be true, software engineers will keep their jobs. Ditto with essay writing and even holding a coherent conversation, frankly.

I happen to think we’re at a local maxima in terms of what purely statistical language models can achieve. I think we’re going to need some planning, some working memory, and a knowledge graph to get things working, but I could be wrong.

You don't even need to go that far, who is going to review, maintain and debug the python code produced apart from a Python developer?

It's not like you can give code to a non-developer and they can use and maintain it

The fear is that the total number of devs necessary to produce the modern world will decrease, or at the very least stop growing.

I'm fine with that. But that's the fear.

This trend was always inevitable IMO. The existence of ChatGPT, despite its many flaws, makes that very apparent.

In terms of abstracting coding jobs, this is much less revolutionary than Wordpress in my opinion.

There's going to be a lot of social and economics changes by this new tech but I don't think code will be the most affected area (for now of course)

The fear from the first line has already been realized more and more in the last twenty years regardless of the developments in AI, though.

Higher abstractions is software have allowed for increased productivity and additional application. Making it easier to write code will only drive more adoption and customization of technology. We are very far from software eating the world: there have only been a few bites and much of the meal is left.

Is there some evidence that fewer software developers are employed now than in the past? The latest layoffs in Silicon Valley notwithstanding, I can't see how software development will become a less important trend than it already is..

ChatGPT targets low-end, offshore customer service and phone call answering applications for technical support. Neither it nor Copilot is any replacement for a software developer.

It can write high impact content if you give it a high impact prompt. I asked it to write a short story by giving a bit more to chew on, and it gave me an excellent result [0] (IMHO) Then I can talk to it, and give high level comments to tweak / rewrite the output. It's a completely different way to be creative, but it is very powerful !

[0] https://twitter.com/fvdessen/status/1600128206408851456

This. I think comments about the quality of an unrefined output from these kind of generative models completely miss the point. ChatGPT and Stable Diffusion are more impactful when you think about them as a paradigm change in creative workflows rather than something that will blow your mind with its output the first time you prompt it.

These models ain't gonna make any jobs obsolete (for now), just redistribute productiveness between those who will eventually learn how to harness them and those who won't.

Right. The fact that I can copy and paste a leetcode question into ChatGPT and get a well-formed answer is amazing, but let's not forget the non-trivial amount of work that goes into the writing a question, with an answer and test cases.

Exactly this is always the problem when adding a layer of tooling. You have to fix things on the meta-level now, plus understand all the stuff of the level you decided to use that tooling to cover for you. This also defines whether such a tool becomes useful or not, because it breaks down into the time invested in dealing with things.

Impact on education is huge. Current style of take-home assignments will loose any educational effect. Negative in the short run; one can only hope that one can switch to new styles of education and turn it into something positive, but it's not a given that will happen.

No one is hiring software agents for poetry.

ChatGPT will be sold (and quite profitably) as a chat support agent for customer service and technical support questions. And it will do a great job at that.

ChatGPT may be entertaining, but it still represents a potential threat to the job market. For example, many journalists and content creators are already being replaced by AI-powered tools. Automation is not just limited to physical labor; it's starting to encroach on creative work as well. ChatGPT is just one more tool in the arsenal of AI-driven automation, and the trend of replacing people with machines will only continue.

Journalism is unfortunately an area where people are too often not interested in paying for the truth. And I don’t mean that in a partisan way, I mean people aren’t willing to pay for it at all. It’s quite sad.

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