Yes, exactly, you seem to be understanding my point: there could be an efficient algorithm that can analyze any program with a bounded number of states and check that it halts.
Among other things, because the P vs NP issue is still wide open, yes.
I'd just like to add three more minor points:
1. Many people believe the above to be false, because they believe that the problem is undecidable also for programs with a bounded number of states.
2. That I would like if more people focused on finding such an efficient algorithm.
3. And that I think that even some people who believe that the problem is decidable think that it's impossible to have an efficient algorithm because of the Halting problem and Rice's theorem, which formally speaking, neither of them say anything about whether such efficient algorithms exist or not.