My prediction on Metaculus from May 2021 was Aug 2027. Today I still think that they will need 4-5 more years.
They seem to be going at about 2x improvement rate every 6 months.
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11608/self-driving-taxis...
My very rough guess is that they still need to make it some 10000x better.
log2(10000) ∗ 0.5 year = 6.64 years
The improvement needed also roughly matches Tesla internal expectations.
According to CJ Moore, Tesla’s director of autopilot software:
> The ratio of driver interaction would need to be in the magnitude of 1 or 2 million miles per driver interaction to move into higher levels of automation.
So, my current prediction is Aug 2027:
- 5% before July 2023
- 25% before Aug 2025
- 50% before Aug 2027
- 75% before May 2030
- 95% before Apr 2034