Tesla Full Self-Driving Beta is now available to anyone in North America

That is the law in the EU but all currently driven Teslas that have been updated in areas that change steering, braking, power, safety features, etc. have the same problem. They haven't been re-approved either and are by definition illegal to drive but rules and laws are there to be ignored after all. I couldn't make changes to my car or motorcycles in those areas if I wanted them to pass a test (like a MOT test) but I'm not a US owned company that you need hundreds of lawyers to even dare look at.

You don't even need to activate FSD to make the car illegal to drive. Just add a few extra HP or upgrade the brakes (hardware or software) and that's it it.

Our current elites do not want lesser humans to make autonomous decisions, hence the push for the technology and the absence of regulations.

We are supposed to be passive, sit in a car while tweeting and be surveilled and tracked 24/7.

(In the case of Tesla, having excellent connections to subsidies, DARPA, as well as providing Starlink Internet to crisis regions with plausible deniability could help, too.)

There is no way that they could release it so easily in EU, but this is also why all startups and big tech companies are in USA.

Just imagine reading a book in a self driving car and thinking about a new generation of self driving:-)

It's kind of terrifying that anyone can modify their vehicle as they please and drive it on the road with everyone else.

Do you think that folks who bought FSD will get a hardware update, without extra cost?

Isn't that exactly what people were saying 2 or 3 years ago?!

Full perfect self driving was complete and ready for release in 2017

They seem to be going at about 2x improvement rate every 6 months.

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11608/self-driving-taxis...

My very rough guess is that they still need to make it some 10000x better.

log2(10000) ∗ 0.5 year = 6.64 years

The improvement needed also roughly matches Tesla internal expectations.

According to CJ Moore, Tesla’s director of autopilot software:

> The ratio of driver interaction would need to be in the magnitude of 1 or 2 million miles per driver interaction to move into higher levels of automation.

So, my current prediction is Aug 2027:

- 5% before July 2023

- 25% before Aug 2025

- 50% before Aug 2027

- 75% before May 2030

- 95% before Apr 2034

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zoKAX-F1t9U

I feel like "Safety Score" was the only thing keeping this "FSD" beta to somewhat responsible adults (e.g. risk of losing access). When that they've opened the floodgates, how long before people are reading a book or on their phone while their car "self drives?"

At some point a vehicle is going to do something atrocious, and the owner will have the means (or find a sympathetic litigator) to sue the crap out of the company.

130,000 Cyclists are injured.

https://www.iihs.org/topics/fatality-statistics/detail/pedes...

https://www.cdc.gov/transportationsafety/bicycle/index.html

We shouldn’t be accepting any deaths, or accidents, and take steps to reduce (eliminate) them.

However, people seem to really get worried when we want technology to assist us.

About 18 pedestrian and 2-3 cyclists will die today in the US alone. What should we do?

The dude behind the mannequin video sells lidar systems and was caught doctoring the first video he released.

It's a commercial name for a Level 3 autonomous function on Tesla cars ("the car’s systems perform the entire dynamic driving task (DDT) within the area that it is designed to do so. The human driver is only expected to be responsible for the DDT-fallback when the car essentially “asks” the driver to take over if something goes wrong or the car is about to leave the zone where it is able to operate." [1]), considering that the "area" is not strictly defined, and could be any road with sufficient visual cues for the car to assume where a viable lane could be.

In terms of sensors, it relies exclusively on optical cameras, as opposed to other autonomy projects that use LiDAR and/or radar and/or ultrasounds as well as cameras.

People have been paying thousands of dollars to subscribe to FSD for many years now, even when the only autonomous interventions in the car were strict Level 2 autonomy. Contributing factors for this seemingly irrational investment could be that the Level 2 features worked great (except for phantom braking and other arguably dangerous mistakes), and the backhanded marketing that would place FSD as a Level 5 autonomy feature.

[1] https://level5auto.com/what-is-level-3-autonomous-driving/

SAE automation level 2 means the machine can do some of the boring parts of driving, but you as driver are actually always responsible, you are required to overrule the machine whenever it does something which was a bad idea and that's somehow not Tesla's fault. If you somehow fall asleep while a level 2 car is "driving" you're possibly never going to wake up, and if you do chances are any collision or other damage is your fault.

At level 4, the machine will either do its job or safely give up. So it's OK to be asleep, although it's possible when you wake up you're like "God damn it car, I wanted to be in Boston by now, and you've just sat here moaning about a little bit of snow just outside Plattsburgh all night"...

(At level 5 the machine should drive in any reasonable conditions, this probably gets very elastic about what constitutes a "reasonable" condition for driving - is this car level 5 despite the fact it won't drive in a blizzard? Maybe not driving in a blizzard isn't cowardice but common sense? A dirt track seems fine in a 4WD with AI, but how about this boulder-strewn mountain path?)

Curiously on page 12, most posts have 1 or no comments. Only one other post has more comments - "The Twitter Advertiser Exodus" [1] clocks in with 315 although it is already a day old.

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33713142