He writes a lot of words that sound smart but ultimately don’t impart much actual content or information.
This post is a stereotypical example. I don’t understand why so many folks praise his “analysis” on topics.
As someone who's always been making stuff in a bootstrapped way, it gives me a different perspective on how to think about what I'm making, and how I could position what I'm doing to others (customers, friends; not necessarily investors).
I'm in the academia / biotech / clinical tech space, and Ben's level of "academicking" is refreshingly to the point compared to how other people in this space write and publish.
Some events happen with with parties A,B, and C. Party X later writes a story about why A-C did those things. These narratives may give us the illusion of comprehension, but how do we determine the truth of them, versus just a plausible but incorrect story.
Not to sound like a pragmatist, because I do believe there is a benefit to non practical arts, but do these blogs help us predict future events? If they don't, are they just providing an illusion of order on a disorderly, mind bogglingly complex world?
First he predicts (pre 2019) that crypto won't amount to anything. This is his true belief. Then in 2020s with crypto mania he gets carried away and writes a bunch of articles saying how it can be great. Now with one exchange failing, he retreats back to his cave of "oh there's nothing here after all".
In some ways, he's just a jpg of the past decades' stock charts -- an interesting compression of the past, but not great at predicting the future.
If he were better, he could do something like pick undervalued growth stocks, or do sector allocation. The equivalent of global macro for technologies. He doesn't do anything close to it, and that tells you all you need to know about the future predictive power of his theories.
folks want someone to be their oracle
scott galloway is another one whose in the business of writing credible narratives that might as well be fiction
the only thing i read now are facts and even those i stick to top line numbers like revenue
ultimately if i’m not investing no way i can know what’s going on and even if i have the facts there’s no chance i can predict
it follows that i don’t really believe anyone else can either
all we can do is focus on the problems in front of us, talk is cheap.
so just do something. build, organize, lead all else is for the feel gooders not the doers
be somebody do something
(Disclosure: I’m a Stratechery subscriber over the last few years considering dropping down to a membership only for the twice-weekly Dithering podcast.)
What I find with Thompson is that his big public stories have the problems you describe, but the paid content is succinct and pulling in the best parts of news stories. I’d almost rather have the option to skip the big stories and receive everything else. I also like the interviews, though recently I’ve been amused by how often the same guest appears on Nilay Patel’s podcast in the same week. (They are as well and discussed it on each other’s podcasts together.) I’m quick to skip ads, so the listening experience is similar.
My perhaps uncharitable guess is that the user who started this discussion doesn’t have any need of analysis in their job, or isn’t busy enough to benefit from a paid news filter. But I’m still hoping to hear from them.