> If SBF does intend to be a fugitive, does he really think this is going to end up OK for him?
Honestly, if he manages to sneak to Laos or the Maldives, even with a mere $100m or so? Yeah he'd most likely be fine, especially if he lays low. A similar example at smaller scale is Sam Jain[0] who ran eFront in the early 00s; he defrauded businesses of tens of millions and ran off somewhere. He's been a fugitive for over a decade but still has multiple millions of dollars to life off of.
Biggest difference is Jain was mainly defrauding businesses, whereas SBF defrauded billionaires... wherever he goes, I'm sure 24/7 armed security is going to be on his shopping list.