>1. Incorruptible supply
Not inherent value.
>energy must be expanded. There's no way to fake it.
That's a negative, not a positive. It means bitcoin actively destroy wealth while giving nothing in return.
>3. Self-custody that's difficult (near impossible if done properly) to confiscate by force. If you control your keys, you control your money.
It's not money, so properly described: a ponzi scheme that's harder to shutdown than more traditional attempts.
>Neither of those are impervious to failure
How fragile or not the backing mechanism is a completely separate issue.
>This is why, ironically, fiat is the ponzi scheme
It isn't. Investors (???) into us dollars don't cash out on future investors that were mostly lied to about what the dollar is. It's a tax token and people are forced to buy it.
>It requires everyone involved to believe the lie
No, it doesn't. It requires the ability to physically enforce the law. Whether people like the dollar or not, is, in itself, of zero consequence as long as the enforcement mechanism works.
>If they can't pay the military
Yes, an incompetent government can kill the economy to the point that no amount of force will work, whether due to violent opposition or lack of any remaining wealth. What actually happens is that people switch to using other stuff for transactions. It can be fiat money that's enforced by another country, or something of inherent value, like coffee beans (happened in Venezuela), salt.
>When in reality, it's just one giant cult
It's not a cult, money is always and everywhere a tax extraction technology. It's going to exist in some form as long as it's possible to tax people under a credible threat of violence. One day in history some human ancestor figured out that collecting rare thing (like seashells) and then forcing people to buy them (with actual wealth) is a good way of living and that's how it goes.
>It will inevitably blow up and when it does
...it won't be replaced by bitcoin, but by some other form of fiat money. Below all the false marketing lies a simple truth: buying bitcoin is a one sided wealth transfer, giving away real wealth in exchange for a printed from thin air token. Some people will as long as they think they will be able to sell to a greater fool in the future.
The problem is that eventually the scheme gets old and it's becoming hard to see where they could come from. People that like ponzi schemes realize that it's better to start new ones and be early. Which is exactly what happened. Btc's returns in the last cycle were pitiful. Now it's bear market and it's extremely weak - both absolutely and relatively. It's an old 13 year old thing that failed in all its stated goals. On top of that it's getting hammered by massive inflation.
Next bull cycle it's going to under-perform even worse and that will be the last time general public will think about it.