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Comment by JumpCrisscross | Hacker News Reader

Which is partly what we’re seeing. CPI rose 0.4% MoM in October, or 4.8% seasonally adjusted. That’s above target, but better than YoY.

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Really wish we reported the 4.8% number. Seems more reasonable for a monthly report to focus on the changes of the month.

I agree it's confusing. I think they do it to remove seasonality and the experts on the topic probably don't understand anymore why the rest of us think their way of reporting is confusing to lay people.

Seasonally adjusted != multiply by 12. Prices naturally fluctuate throughout the year due to weather, consumer patterns, and business cycles. Seasonal adjustment is an attempt to account for those changes.

> Seasonally adjusted != multiply by 12

My brain swapped annualised with seasonally adjusted. Sorry.

Beyond seasonal price fluctuations, wouldn't it be 1.04^12 = ~6% annually?

0.4% is 0.004, so 1.004^12 = 1.049... or 4.9%

Derp, yeah. Thanks.

I agree the annualizing the monthly figure would be handy, as an additional figure. Looking at annualized monthly figures, it was also apparent (say) six months ago, that the monthly annual figures would almost certainly continue to get worse.

Also note the four most recent (seasonally adjusted) monthly CPI numbers:

  Jul 2022: 0.0%
  Aug 2022: 0.1%
  Sep 2022: 0.4%
  Oct 2022: 0.4%

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