They would have lost their air superiority in a day or two. We have at least 200 immediately available meteor, and they have 13 planes on which those wouldn't be fully effective (basically the NEZ would be less than 60km for their Su57. Maybe.) We also have hundreds of MICA NG, and tbh, even our old MICA would be enough for most of Russian aircraft.

And I'm not even talking about US missiles, who are probably better than MICA.

Without air support, I don't see how you invade Poland and cross rivers.