"It isn't affecting me so it doesn't exist" is a fairly elementary mistake, yeah?
What OP is referring to is called bubbly fiscal agony.
The world is large and diverse. To understand it, one has to look at statistics. Looking at people runs in to hard limits very quickly, because it is only possible to see people who are in the same place as the viewer.
Speaking for the US: This 'recession' is weird because consumer demand is strong, job openings are high, the unemployment rate is near record lows, and GDP grew in the last quarter. So, to echo OP - what recession? A drop in the stock market does not a recession make.
It almost seems as if some quarters are willing a recession into being, but consumers are not having it. Granted the federal reserve is trying to curtail consumer spending to curb inflation, so I get why businesses would predict a recession. In all, it feels like the twilight zone.
Companies are starting to see the slowdown, so they are taking preemptive action so as earnings contract, P/Es will hold up better.
The politically minded readers of Hacker News refused to listen to those who said 2 quarters of negative GDP doesn’t necessarily mean a recession.
It would be really nice if we could take a deeper dive into economics, markets, etc and all learn but …
I mean that honestly; I know there's a downturn and it'll probably continue, but my instinct is that something so widely talked about and accepted will probably not be as bad as it seems. Again I have no proof and maybe my instincts are totally wrong, but that's the feeling
"Economists have predicted 9 of the last 5 recessions" - Paul Samuelson
2006 is when the housing bubble was pierced. It took another couple of years to fully deflate, so bursting isn't likely the best depiction of the event, but typically when we talk about bubbles bursting we refer to the first moment of weakness, not the tail end.
It was the securities market that crashed fast and hard five years later. The housing market crash played a role in that happening, I'm sure, but isn't housing itself.
Pretty much the center of opinion in mid-2006 was that the housing market was in a "slowdown" but that any recession would be brief, talk of "soft landings" and everything else. Everyone could see that it was rolling over, but there was a lot of optimistic talk about it.
Your opinion here is almost exactly the opinion seen 6-12 months before a strong recession.
There was some discussion of a contraction/recession due to the spike in commodities around 2014 by economists, but that never quite developed into a broad common opinion that a recession was due. And there was no Fed rate hike cycle starting then (since the Fed knew that inflation that was confined to commodities would be its own tax and brake on the economy, in the absence of other measures of inflation taking off).
https://economicgraph.linkedin.com/en-us/resources/linkedin-...
Looks like the hiring rate is down some since May but still quite positive. It's always been above 1% for the last two years, and reached a max of about 1.35% in June of last year. It is down 10.6% this October, compared to October of last year, but the actual variation in hiring rate is not huge. They break it down by industry, some industries have increased hiring, some have decreased it.
7 of the 12 recessions marked on the graph temporarily jumped up then dropped back down during the recession.
A note though that the "2 quarters negative real GDP growth" has only ever been a rule of thumb that tends to fit (on that graph above, the dips below 0 outside of recessions only ever lasted one quarter). The official determination has always been made by NBER ( https://www.nber.org/ ), and how they determine it is more complicated (though AFAIK the details aren't public). I think it's too soon for them to make a determination on this one though, they make it while looking backwards, so these two quarters may yet become official which would maintain the pattern.
To some degree, this is just the human condition, but it is especially common (and annoying) in internet comments.
Last election: "If my social circle thinks we are going to win, then it is a given". Both share a pattern: a tech bubble (pun intended)
Some data (need more) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33453819