Surprisingly, I think no attacker has ever forged a OpenPGP signature in a real-world security incident, likely because there's a lack of overlap between crypto nerds and crackers.
Though, public keys do not change often and leave somewhat of an "audit trail". I usually search the key fingerprint on the web to see if it has been mentioned elsewhere as a quick check. Some projects store signing keys in an official upstream git repository. It's somewhat of a higher guarantee, but one can still creates a false upstream page for phishing... But I guess it's too much of an effort so nobody has tried to do this, yet.
Thankfully, for distro users, it's only something for packagers to worry about, end users always receive verified packaged via the distro package manager.