Computers Will Entertain Us to Death
restrictionisexpression.com
restrictionisexpression.com
There's virtually no innovation, but I'm not sure that's the reason, I think you just move on. I remember a crossover point where I looked at realistic graphics and thought "I could just go outside and go for a run" and then did.
Innovation doesn't please shareholders nearly as much as re-hashing the same banal gameplay mechanics with slight tweaks every year or so (Call of Duty). The industry did it to themselves when they sold their soul to the casuals. I have little sympathy for them, but perhaps it's better for me personally.
I make time for a few games a year, and call it good. I'll get hooked from time to time, but never like I used to.
Sure, there's the occasional innovative hit (Portal, Minecraft, Angry Birds) that drives a bunch of profits for an lucky (usually independent) developer. But the overwhelming share of revenue in the industry goes to the rehashed genre pieces like CoD or Skyrim. If you want to blame someone, blame the buyers.
Too many people misinterpret the 4Steps/Lean methodology to just do the startup equivalent of P&G's incremental "innovation" - instead of trying to be the Unreasonable Man that we all should be striving to be.
There will always be room for the next minecraft. Just don't look to the studios to produce it.
Of course, you can have more than one hobby. I still play video games when I have time and the mood strikes me, but I also play Go and that is what I bring up when asked. (Not due to concerns about social stigma, I am just hoping they will also play Go and we can arrange a game.)
Both older (read: more powerful) men and women of all ages seem to respond much better when I mention "cycling", "hiking", or "boxing" than when I all I had was "playing video games", "watching downloaded television", or even "reading". It's kind of hard to untangle the effects of 42 pounds weight loss from any of these experiments, though.
For example: I mostly play Battlefield 3 right now, and while the graphics are good, and the game plays nicely, the value comes almost entirely from the social experience in the context of the gameplay.
tl;dr: df is cocaine
However, this can't be true. As David Deutsch has argued, humans are knowledge creators: we thrive only by thinking about our environment and our problems and trying to improve stuff. It has been thus since we split from the rest of the primates.
We cannot perceive reality directly. Thinking itself is a form of virtual reality rendering. In order to improve stuff, we have to imagine how it could be different. So we all exist in virtual realities, whether we want to or not.
Obviously this doesn't address all the concerns in the article, but it might be a better starting point. One could go on to consider the educational value of games, perhaps by asking whether all learning can be regarded as forms of gaming. And then: which games are better than others and why?
Creating computer games can be an art. Playing computer games seldom is. There aren't that many games that you can play creatively, and really few where your creations can have any value outside of the universe of the game.
Wow... the basis of my philosophy! IMHO: technological and scientific research - and art! - are basically the worthwhile "ends".
Building infrastructure (as well as mining, agriculture, most manufacturing, health care, SOME lawmaking, SOME politics, SOME entertainment, SOME advertising etc etc) ARE worthwhile, being the means to the abovementioned ends.
(and MOST politics, entertainment, lawmaking, advertising and so on are plain old not worthwhile, or even harmful).
That Bruce Willis movie with the immersive VR was a catchy prediction for the new opiate. Large portions of society are waiting for the chance to lose themselves in a deterministic, programmed world that is more pleasurable than their reality. It's terrifying to consider the ramifications of this. If you can plug in, feed yourself some poptarts and hydrate every 8 hours, and otherwise float in limbo being someone you love more than your real self, we're going to see entire classes of people disappear, just like my WoW friends that I'll probably never chat with again.
Caroline continued. "So they learn where the pleasure points are by hook or
crook, then stimulate themselves directly. And when they get it right, they
never do anything else. They get everything maximized, tuned up, and they just
sit there forever enjoying it."
"Right. Now is a creature that is doing that, not interacting with the world
at all any more, human?"
Caroline thought about it. "No."
"Prime Intellect thinks otherwise. But it has its doubts."Once you short circuit your pleasure systems - which evolved to keep you alive and reproducing - you'll soon be displaced by a species with better self control.
You're describing the Metaverse from Neal Stephenson's `Snow Crash'.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snow_Crash
Read it. It's fun.
But that is NOT what the Snow Crash Metaverse is about, and there are countless science fiction stories that do directly approach this subject matter.
Stephenson's Metaverse is very much the WWW with 3d goggles and a semi-constrained semi-realistic physics. It has people playing games, like the web. It has people mingling socially, it has people mingling for business, and it has places where those lines blur, like the web. It has people telecommuting to work, even, and it looks a lot like using a VPN. It has spammy ads, like the web, and savvy clients have plugins that try to identify and block those ads, like the web. Except for the extrapolation that we'd want 3d intput for everything, and the extrapolation that we'd want computer-vision cameras converting the upper half of our bodies into input devices, it's basically a very conservative extrapolation of the web, with only minimal changes. It's the single least far-reaching speculation in that novel; nearly every page discussing something OTHER than the Metaverse is way-out-there stuff (franchise nation-states, the whole nam-shub thing, man-portable fusion power (for Reason), smartwheels and microradar as consumer-grade goods, rat-things, it just goes on and on).
As for stories that DO actually talk about this (unlike Snow Crash), my favorite is God Is An Iron, a short story by Spider Robinson, that he later expanded into the novel Mindkiller. And not that I'm the hugest fan of Niven, but Niven's Ringworld has, as a side point, the same thing going on (Ringworld is the book that Bungie basically lifted whole-cloth to write the plot for Halo, ha ha).
Lady of Mazes, by Karl Schroeder
Skyrim is almost completely realistic-looking. At some point in the near future, the games we play will likely be indistinguishable from reality, or even more likely, much better than reality in every way.
But the more surprising thing is that Skyrim has a system that randomly generates more stuff to do than you could reasonably do in a lifetime of playing the game. Now, it's essentially the same thing over and over, but there's no reason to assume that games in the future won't become even better at this. The key point is that there is stuff to do in the game that someone didn't have to manually create.
The logical conclusion is that at some point in the future, there will exist an endless supply of stuff to do that is more entertaining than reality, not just in the current "addictive until you eventually get bored a year later" way, but in the "automatically generated by algorithms so complex that the game is constantly new and surprising and you will never get bored" way.
I wonder where that will lead. Maybe it's the ultimate bread and circus for the populous, where one could lead an extremely happy and fulfilling life in a virtual world with essentially no cost to anyone.
And if you take a step back, that's exactly where we are today, at least in the developed world. For the most part, if you abandon all the trappings of the modern, virtual world, you can live a happy and fulfilling life for nearly zero cost. But we choose to buy cell phones, TV's, and other forms of entertainment that aren't really necessary.
Beyond the necessities, it's all entertainment, including that 40 hour job that you don't really have to do to live or that startup you founded because you believe it will make your life better.
Of course, I'm also looking forward to my property values going up when all you coastal people find your houses a mile offshore, so maybe I'm just excessively phlegmatic to start with.
Most people aren't evolved to resist serious strains of flu, but when an epidemic happens the next generation will be those who were. There are probably people who are perfectly capable of adapting to virtual reality worlds right now, just as there are those who can avoid getting obese despite the presence of vastly calorific foods and can avoid mental diseases despite the highly unusual (from a historical perspective) nature of modern society.
It's true because diseases kill unprepared and leave only the (more-less) adapted. So far neither obesity nor computer games were successful in killing people on the mass scale fast enough. Also, we're actively engineering the computer games to be as immersing as possible. If a 'resistant generation' pops up, it'll probably at some point engineer addicting games for itself.
So yeah, maybe technical society is a nonviable evolutionary pathway in the long run. Why should I care?
You're so far off your evolutionary track there's simply no reason not to go further.
I'm not saying live like the Omish, but we should look at our ancestors and see what we should retain, rather than change in order to make our life better.
Commenting on Hacker News is a necessity.
An aside for a moment: are you doing a paleolithic diet? We did that for a year or two while our daughter was going through Crohn's - the transition to it just about killed me. But saved her. So I know where you're coming from.
To address your main point, though: the decision as to what makes life better is yours, for you, and mine, for me - and if somebody decides their life is better because they can go virtual, well, that's none of your business or mine. I have very little patience for the ashes-and-sackcloth approach: whether it's dressed in evangelical or treehugging clothing, Puritanism just gets my goat.
It's a hard balance. It's fun to go Reddit/funny just to have a few laughs and it's fun to post links and songs to entertain friends in other states/countries, but at what point is this really good for me or satisfying? Wouldn't it be better to take all my mindshare and energy and go learn the skills that will get me a more satisfying job? Or do the things that would get me more time with women (affection/sex)? More time in nature? More friendships? Strengthen my body...etc. etc.
I'm still in love with physical reality. I'm always in awe of the world when I look at Boston.com's big picture or watch nature videos on Vimeo.
I don't really have a point, just that it saddens me quite a bit to think how much people are missing out the world. And this is in an old argument, but it's no wonder people don't care about the destruction of the species/habitat when they're so amused in some virtual world. It's hard not to cross my fingers for some massive power outage/food shortage temporary wake up call.
I know that if I were offered something like that, a world where I could live out fantasies with no conditions, other than that I give up my body, I may very well take it.
The end of humanity as we know it, perhaps, indeed.
Same theme. It goes a little more into talking about societal implication; e.g. there'll be a divide in society as a result between the norm - "addiction" in some regards - and those who can/choose to stay unaddicted.
Multivitamins and melatonin?
The only real question I have is: will this super-entertainment world be better than this one outside of the entertainment-sphere? I don't really care if people waste their lives in WoW or equivalent, so long as I'm not forced to join them or support them living in that world. (I'd like to see the day when basic needs like food/shelter/water are next to free in costs so people could waste their lives without burdening anyone else, if they wanted to.)
Even if I could be convinced that joining them would make me feel so good about the decision afterwards, I'd resist in the same manner I resist buying/making meth today. I'm still fascinated by reality, and I want to continue to be the sort of person fascinated by reality, so I'll refuse your drug that would make me say the same things about your virtual reality.
Others here have noted that the prediction pattern-matches against lots of older ones, it certainly goes back throughout the ages. It would be amusing if Star Trek got it right in the end: a holodeck used as occasional recreation (and for other things) in the same way our t.v.s and games are used as occasional recreation, rather than something real that many people spend their lives in.
Don't forget that Lieutenant "Broccoli" Barclay had a Holodeck addiction/obsession.
Also, didn't Star Trek Enterprise variants always have some huge number of crew (or civilians, I don't recall) aboard? They couldn't all be transporting down to exotic locations every episode, so they must have had to make up something to do all day.
While I fully anticipate that this sort of world will cause some sort of problems, I doubt we can really call them this far in advance.
I'd also observe that if one lives more or less their entire reality in some sort of VR simulation... so what? I can make arguments in both directions (at length, actually but I'll spare you) but it's too rich a question to implicitly assert an answer.
The meta-question here is very interesting. At what point do humans controlling their environment cease being humans? So yes, you could sit absolutely still and live a tremendously-rewarding virtual life because you have designed a world that emotionally compels you to never leave. To the rest of us, you look like a potted plant. Does that make you less human? Or, to put differently, if you were completely paralyzed, yet were able to think (I believe they call it "locked in") is there anything wrong with you that the rest of us should care about and fix? Is how we define being a human inexorably linked to physical social participation? I believe so, but I'm not comfortable with my own line of reasoning here.
Note that I don't have a problem with us evolving into something else. My only concern is that we acknowledge what's happening so that we can realistically talk about it. If we are evolving, then there will be a selection function that we had get pretty damn good at meeting. I imagine that function is going to be the ability to turn the system off from time to time. What I see instead is millions of folks who spend more time than even they are happy with plugged in and are in a great bit of denial as to exactly what social effect that is having. If you ask me, the singularity is already here. We just can't see it.
That's how evolution works, though, of course. Some individuals will do better than others, and the overall population will gradually become more like them. I don't think there's any sense in worrying about what we'll evolve into - it will be whatever fits our environment best.
I think the more worthwhile concern is, in the relative short term, whether it will make us and those we care about more or less happy. That's probably much more complicated to answer.
Simple economics tell us that as population grows and natural resources are depleted, real physical goods and services will become scarce and costly especially compared to virtual ones which seem to be created with a shrinking amount of matter and energy.
The implication of this are interesting for the evolution of humanity.
Will reality become a luxury, where the common people will be able to afford nothing more than basic subsistence including low cost per calorie diet and a few cubic meters of real word dwelling? Will only the rich be able to afford the additional matter and energy to provide for further floor space, better food and physical travel?
The cost difference between virtual experiences and real world experiences might become so large that most people will prefer to get the better bang for the buck available virtually.
What are the implication for jobs, how will value be created and distributed when people spend most of their time in a virtual world? Here, I don't mean just entertainment goods that are only worth something in the context of a game. I mean things like education, artistic virtual experiences, virtual social events, virtual performances, movies, music, etc. The virtual economy will be greatly influenced by intellectual property laws and I assume, a lot of these goods will have to include DRM for sustaining jobs even if the goods are really cheap compared to real world goods.
What activities will give meaning to human life? Intellectual endeavors, artistic endeavors and socializing should remain low cost and may still offer a lot of depth and complexity to people's lives, especially as the tools to support these activities become better. In fact, if you evaluate your life by the breath of ideas, relationships and arts you are able to master, a life lived virtually might become more fulfilling than one encumbered by the limits of the real world.
How will serious social relationships evolve in virtual worlds? What are the implications for reproduction?
In a virtual world, it is going to be really easy to move away when not getting along with a community. It will also be really easy to create new communities for like minded individuals. People might not have to get along they might just isolate themselves in smaller communities. What are the implications for the way politics will be performed. What are the implication for law enforcement? What are the implications for war and how will all this spill over into the real world? The communities will still have to collaborate to maintain real world security and defense.
Then there is the issue of the physical body's health needs. Will the human body be able to adapt to this type of life?
Will resource scarcity push humanity to a virtual existence? When you look at people living in their parents' basement spending all their time online, sometimes because of the lack of economic opportunity in the real world, it sure makes it look like the transition has already begun.
Even if you don't believe your upload wouldn't truly be you, you might take the option, if the alternative is certain death by starvation. Better die and spawn a ghost, than die and leave nothing.
Now it's not all pretty: if you assume a capitalistic, competitive environment, one could set up "interesting" forms of exploitation. An upload could be saved, stopped, restarted, spied on, tortured… Robin Hanson produced quite interesting (though horrifying) speculation about how such a world might look like.
Ceasing to exist is, in a strict Darwinian sense, bad. Reproduction and, to an extent, continued existence are good.
I say the immortality of my genes pale in comparison to the immortality of my thought processes. Even if the copy isn't really "me", it will have the same influence I could have had if it was. I may have other goals besides not dying. My ghost would have at least a chance of carrying them out.
Hell, yes. And it is not an assumption, it is an observation.
I was in an engineering class called "sustainable development" at Waterloo and got into an argument with my professor about a "maximum human population". My point, that I still hold to this day, was that the average extra human will increase our capacity for more humans by more than one. Whether it is from space cities or virtual realities we are not a virus that the movie The Matrix portrays us to be. We will expand to the stars, the sea, the deep earth, and other realities; whether they be on silicon chips or other dimensions. Just wait until Gataca comes or mind-computer interfaces. The average IQ in 2011 terms will be 150.
Think about how you work today: you sit down in front of a screen. You sit there for 5, 8, 12 hours and stare at a screen to do your work. Millions of desk-workers everywhere have become people staring at screens for about 8 hours a day, playing with a handheld screen when not at a desk.
A large part of it is because technology is enabling and seen as a benefit, but that doesn't detract from the fact that it is an invasive effect in the lives of the first world. As technology gets better, becomes more enabling, and allows us to do more with it, I don't see that stopping.
In the book, the protagonist discovers a world in which people have abandoned reality in favor of a more enjoyable virtual world. As a result, society declines to the point where the real world is crumbling down.
Not saying that's what will happen, but it's an interesting read.
Good to see people continuing to recognize this troubling fact and the community trying to come to terms with it.
Increasingly we lose this sense of surprise, so that we are no longer overly
amazed at anything and, ultimately, find satisfaction in everything—this is
what is called historical sensibility, historical cultivation. Stated
noneuphemistically: the massive influx of impressions is so great; surprising,
barbaric, and violent things press so overpoweringly—'balled up into hideous
clumps'—in on the youthful soul; that it can save itself only by taking
recourse in premeditated stupidity.
So I'm not sure what the point of the "pre-date" claim is. I am curious if you've come up with any good suggestions on how to 'fix' the problem in those intervening years, though.No doubt there is a very human pattern at work that hasn't changed over the centuries. Also no doubt that there is a technological amplifier at work as well.
I look at it like money: having lots of money tends to make you more of what you already are. So if you're a jerk, being rich is just going to exacerbate that. In a way, then, being able to handle great wealth is an indication of a very stable (and perhaps dull) personality.
Technology is doing a very similar thing with distractions. Some folks are easily distracted. Some are not. As technology improves, people who are less-easily distracted are finding they are spending more and more of their time plugged in. The best argument here is self-reports: many people freely acknowledge that they spend more time plugged in than they are comfortable with.
As far as solutions, I tried a couple myself, along with some volunteers from HN. Didn't get a lot of traction, sadly. "Purposeful interruptions" was the line we were pursuing. At the time of the essay, my money was on a new form of morality taking hold -- that it simply won't be "cool" to spend too much time physically inert. That hasn't happened, sadly.
PG also wrote an essay a few months after mine along these lines. I keep hoping that with so many smart people looking at this we will start seeing some breakthroughs.
"Now, the true city is in my opinion the one we just described--a
healthy city, as it were. But, if you want to, let's look at a
feverish city, too. Nothing stands in the way....This healthy
one isn't adequate any more, but must already be gorged with a
bulky mass of things."
I tried a solution once, too: I threw away my computer.It's an inherent part of being human to see the present day as the end of days.
We keep inventing these entertaining and pleasurable things, and at first we get lost in them. We are like children playing with our new toy. And after a while we calm the hell down, we develop patterns and social customs that help us use the toy for entertainment in a harmless way.
You might think technology is bad, but personally I think there's nothing wrong with WoW or heroin. It's just that people can drive in a car at 150mph+ recklessly, all day, stealing money from their families or they can use it to get somewhere and occasionally for fun.
http://www.edge.org/q2007/q07_print.html#miller
Previous discussion: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1550112
So what we have to do is gamify exploration and conquest and we'll rule the galaxy within the next thousand years.
the average piece of junk is probably more meaningful than our criticism designating it so.
- Ratatouille
And vice-versa.
If a society does not threaten its people with poverty, misery and slavery as a consiquence to wasting your life on video games, then that society will crumble to make way for one that does.
In the last few decades we've seen white collar workers become shackled to the desktop, and then shackled to the internet. Just how many hours a day do any of us spend away from the Net? How much of the physical world are we missing compared to our ancestors?
Seriously.
But they want to feel the achievement so they do it in games, where everything is fine-tuned to be achievable.