One theory that explains it is that his objective at this point is to lose - but lose to USA or NATO, not to Ukraine.
I think it's only that, nothing more sophisticated. He won't give up, because it's so unpleasant, but he can't win, so he's in limbo. The war continues until Ukraine and the West push Russia out of Ukraine.
Interesting perspective, and it makes sense. There's probably less shame in losing to the most powerful alliance in the world, than losing to a former vassal.
This might actually increase the chance of him using tactical nukes; that's the surefire way to get NATO involved. But ideally he'll want to lose just barely to NATO; he doesn't want to get completely destroyed. That's probably why he's escalating one small step at a time.
Its not good to believe ones own propaganda, and we in the West are extremely propagandized about this action. Russia hasn't applied the full forces of its war machines to Ukraine - yet. Its a "special military operation" because Putin is limited by Russia's democracy as to what he can apply.
Escalating to actual war policies is whats happening right now. Once the ground freezes in Ukraine (within the next few weeks), there will be another round of attacks from Russia - this time, with all the 'terrorist attacks on the Russian state', Putins' gloves will be coming off. We in the West don't understand that what we incorrectly perceive as a "failed military invasion" is really just the first round in a 'special military operation' that has to scale up to war before Russia's full war machine is activated. We want to believe it was a failed full-blown war - the truth is, its just the beginning ..
Strange. As far as rest of the world knows, Ukraine fought a spectacular counteroffensive against Russia's elite tank division (4th Guards) near Izyum just a few weeks ago, took many of them prisoners and captured 100 or so of their best tanks and hundreds of APCs.
Its a "special military operation", meaning Putin is limited as to what he can order into the field. Now that he has the justification of "terrorist attacks on Russia", he can escalate - and this is precisely what is about to happen. When the ground freezes in Ukraine, an even more lethal Russian force will be applied to what is now more of a war and less of a 'special operation'.
Me saying this does not mean I agree with it - I find all of it heinous. But those of you addicted to your Western propaganda need to understand that it is very, very dangerous to suck up your own agitprop and consider it the one Holy Truth™. You'd be a lot wiser if you actually paid attention to what Russia, itself, has to say about the situation - not that you can, given the censorship regime being imposed on you by your own military, alas...
Of course it was, Kupiansk is a very important railway junction[1] and the whole front collapsed after it was captured. Speed of the operation was nothing short of amazing. In mere days Ukraine liberated more than Russia had captured in months of heavy fighting with insane losses, worst since WW2. In large parts of Ukraine's northeast, Russia was pushed back to state border and there is virtually no fighting anymore beyond sporadic Russian revenge attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure. This is dictionary definition of a decisive victory. Russian forces have left the Sumy-Kharkiv region and the fighting over Ukraine's north-east has finished.
[1] https://d1c4d7gnm6as1q.cloudfront.net/Pictures/web/c/e/b/ukr...
> and Russia has not applied the full forces of its military in this "operation" - yet.
Why are police officers dragging pilots from airliner cockpits[2] and sending as cannon fodder to the frontlines if there is no desperate shortage of manpower? Why is Putin's right-hand man touring prisons to recruit rapists and murderers?[3] The clock is ticking on Kherson and it is only a question of time when Ukraine will liberate it, Ukraine already conducted a successful limited operation and liberated a lot of ground north of Kherson. Why isn't the "full force" brought in to stop the humiliating series of defeats?
[2] https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1580907603101896704
[3] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/20/russia-recruit...
> You'd be a lot wiser if you actually paid attention to what Russia, itself, has to say about the situation - not that you can, given the censorship regime being imposed on you by your own military, alas...
I don't think even Russian MoD claims that there is no Russian regular army in Ukraine. Who told you that?
Because Putin doesn't have the power to do such a thing: he is not a dictator, Western agitprop notwithstanding.
Same reason Bush had to invent a phony "war on terror" excuse to get around the requirement that he get - democratically - Congress' permission to declare war on the world.
>I don't think even Russian MoD claims that there is no Russian regular army in Ukraine. Who told you that?
The Russians themselves. You probably don't have access to their statements, though .. or haven't tried very hard to find them yourself.
This was a "special military operation" because Putins Presidency is not a total dictatorship. Conditions for declaring total war were not in place - they are now, however. The West likes to think this "special military operation" represents the totality of Russian military power being applied - and failing - but this is a very, very dangerous mistake to make.
Ah. Now I suspect I know what you're talking about: the terror campaign. Essentially what Russia did in Syria - they don't stand a chance against a proper army, but they definitely can commit genocide and level entire cities, like they did in Mariupol.
So, yes, indeed, they are starting to do it again. But because they have already spent most of the tools they could use to do it - we know that because they are forced to use very expensive weapons in a way that doesn't make any sense, like attacking ground targets using anti-ship missiles - it will quickly fizzle out. They got one last push using Iranian ghetto-drones, but even those are in limited quantity - all of this stuff depends on western parts.