it's not "solely" based on that. icahn's rationale merger arbing the stock was he valued it in the 30s anyway so not a bad buy. but... yeah word of whether a deal that pays a substantial premium will go through or not can move the stock, duh. this is true of most other pending mergers elon's just more volatile so there's a lot more risk than in a typical go private.

i do not doubt the SEC is looking at him hella hard rn, he's probably not stupid enough to try to trade like that.