Just as handwavy as any other explanation of consciousness. I can make an electronic device that runs a Python program that predicts how input affects the device. That doesn't make the device conscious.
A sufficiently advanced such Python program will probably actually be conscious.
Of course not. And sorry if I've missed the sarcasm :)
Why of course not?
What makes you think that a simulation of a process is the process itself? If you were to simulate on silicon kidney function down to sub-particle precision, would you expect your computer to pee on your desk? So why would you expect consciousness to be present in a simulation of brain activity or brain complexity? Can you point to _any_ instance of presumed consciousness in a non-biological complex?
Yes, you would expect the kidney to produce its expected outputs to an entity within" the simulation. Of course it wouldn't produce the same things outside the simulation.
Which is why it's so handwavy. Why not just say "at some point the magic comes in and you get qualia", which again, explains nothing.