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Comment by causi | Hacker News Reader

1) we're likely in a declining/sideways market for at least another year until inflation subsides

Gonna be a lot longer than that, at least as far as inflation goes. Q3 2022 is the median date for retirement of the largest generation, the Boomers. When they retire they take their capital with them. Expect the cost of capital triple for at least the next decade.

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Most people will have their capital in accounts the rebalance towards bonds on a yearly basis. They aren’t going to be just pulling a ton of acapital out of the market to live off of

Can you expand on this? What do you mean when you say that the cost of capital will triple over the next decade?

The US population pyramid is no longer a pyramid, and neither are those of most of the rest of the world. Not having to pay to raise a larger generation created a golden age that's lasted thirty years. It's now time to pay the piper.

https://i.imgur.com/iUYcuTQ.png

This model is not consistent with what we've seen in Japan over the past several decades.

They probably mean that prevailing interest rates will triple.

> Q3 2022 is the median date for retirement of the largest generation, the Boomers.

Just to nitpick: the largest generation is the millennials, not the boomers.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/797321/us-population-by-...

Millennials are the largest living generation. The total population of the Boomers, and their economic impact, was higher. It's just that some of them are dead now.

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