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Comment by caeril | Hacker News Reader

> Both sides would either devolve into unlivable hellscapes

One side would devolve into an unlivable hellscape. The other side would devolve into the 1890s-1910s or so, without access to modern imported goods.

Nobody would "win". It's obviously a horrible scenario. But one side would definitely lose.

> It can't happen without something freakish happening

Nations collapse from political schism all the time. We just have short memories.

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Modern farming is completely dependent on those ports you so eagerly gave away. How many millions of people would die of starvation and from the inevitable resource wars while the few people who know how to farm the old-fashioned way figured out how to make it work on land that's been made dependent on abundant imported fertilizer and pesticides?

I do not believe the people yelling "secession!" are prepared to revert to a pre-WWI world.

Modern farming is indeed dependent on imports. But modern-"ish" farming, with tractors, combines, and some degree of mechanization can still be done and maintained without microprocessors, sensors, and precision pumps and machine tools.

And if your supply requirements decrease by 150MM people, that makes the job substantially easier to manage.

> I do not believe the people yelling "secession!" are prepared to revert to a pre-WWI world.

Ah, but they think they are. Which is really the only thing that matters, since beyond a certain point, it's too late.

you are aware the gulf coast has a lot of ports for imports and exports. most gas comes out of "flyover country" and ends up at gulf export sites (see henry hub) and that's the big input to producing ammonia fertilizer.

> The other side would devolve into the 1890s-1910s or so, without access to modern imported goods

Subsistence farming is great for feeding an army so you can rebel against your government

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