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Comment by vkou | Hacker News Reader

The decision-making involved was quite rational if you assume Putin was operating with incomplete information. Had the war ended in two weeks, as it looked like it was going to right at the start, he would have met his domestic goals.

But then it turned out that Ukraine was more prepared than Russian intelligence thought, and Europe started flooding it with weapons. Given that Russia isn't taking the war half as seriously[1] as Ukraine is, none of what's happening is irrational or surprising.

[1] By design. Putin didn't want an existential conflict that required actual sacrifice on the part of his constituents, he just wanted an easy victory to cement his popularity. He's now stuck in a situation where he has few good options.

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He also rotted Russia from the inside, putting only incompetent but loyal acolytes everywhere.

He was afraid of the Army, which is why it always treated it like shit, except for vanity projects.

Which is why they have hypersonic missiles and nuclear powered torpedoes, but no socks, uniforms and guns for recruits.

If The Tale of the Crosseyed Lefthander from Tula taught anything, it was not to polish rifles with sand. But the memo's still not getting through despite the upgraded steel fleas.

Book: The Steel Flea, Nikolai Leskov, 1881

In other countries this sounds like the sort of thing that launches never ending coups.

Weakening the army and making sure everyone below you is incompetent is actually a great way of preventing coups. Convincing your international competition to be incompetent is much more difficult!

>>"He also rotted Russia from the inside, putting only incompetent but loyal acolytes everywhere."

Not really. I recommend talking to Russians of certain age. What they say is something like "sure, Putin is far from perfect, but he saved us from the 90's"

I don't think most people understand how bad things were there after the wall fall. The usual human reaction is turn to a strong man that put some order in the chaos.

> decision-making involved was quite rational if you assume Putin was operating with incomplete information

This is stupid strategy. Military men millennia ago were beyond it. The fog of war is real. One maintains exit ramps. Fully committing at the onset of a war you unilaterally start is blunder, full stop.

Part is the fundamental weakness of dictatorship, a weakness our ancestors addressed with monarchy. (Bush and Nixon could walk away from failed wars their successors wrapped up without fear for their lives. As could Roman consuls.) But a larger part is broad stupidity, concentrated at the Kremlin.

UA was incompetently underestimated, given every political decision involves incomplete information

They only survive because they're propped up by western powers. If someone had won their reelection that would have never happened. The tzar probably included that in his calculus but had his timetable delayed by the pandemic.

Of course, but UA had the balls and skills to use the tools effectively was what was very underestimated

Hopefully, one day the truth of delusional propaganda will be universally understood.

It is like a bio-weapon and will eventually take out your own troops.

UA was underestimated, RU was overestimated.

I agree with the general sentiment, but once you start calling in conscripts and mobilizing the population, it’s assumed you’re taking the war seriously.

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