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Comment by machina_ex_deus | Hacker News Reader

While I would be very happy to see the Iranian Islamic regime collapse, the current protests are pretty weak compared to the past.

The oil price protests of 2019 reached higher destruction within two days than the whole current protests combined. They actually temporarily lost control of cities.

They need something stronger to collapse their dictatorship. They probably need a real opposition leader. And more organized actions than sporadic protests. I don't see the current protests going anywhere.

I'm not sure why are the downvotes?

Truth is, getting crashed economically is almost always better protest motivation than women rights. Protests that threaten regimes are usually triggering desperate men. You're not getting regime change from hijab protests where economic desperation protests of bigger magnitudes failed.

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This is not true. These protests are unique because:

1. For the first time, people are also willing to be violent against the regime.

2. This is more geographically distributed than previous ones.

3. It's distributed among all classes now.

4. It has been going the longest, despite the violence of the regime.

I think this is definitely the first time since the Green Movement that the regime is really sensing existential threats.

One thing to people watching the news:

This is probably the biggest woman's rights movement in middle east history (or the world). I don't think Woman fought this hard for their freedoms anytime (Could be wrong though). Also probably the biggest secular movement in ME history.

Source: Iranian, used to be part of the green movement, nowadays living in the US only with friends and family in Iran.

I was following both protests. The Iranian regime is well trained at oppressing protests.

1. is factually incorrect. 2019 had them burning basij buildings. 2. also factually incorrect. 2019 as geographically spread as this one. 3. Incorrect. It's middle class this time. 2019 were lower class. 4. Also incorrect. At this point I suspect this is the first protest in Iran you ever noticed and you're just making stuff up.

I agree that it's probably the biggest women rights protest in history. But historically, woman rights protests never ever led to regime change. You need desperate men and violence.

I don’t think that’s factually correct.

As far as I am aware, most successful movements of this sort win when security forces are no longer willing to fire on them because the crowd includes some of their relatives and friends.

It's easy to convince security forces to return fire, but more difficult to convince them to fire on unarmed civilians.

The primary method for a regime to keep its security forces in line is to ensure their extended families are well-off (this is easier to do if you draw them from a single, government-privileged ethic group).

Where exactly are you bringing these factually wrong facts of yours from?

One is kidding himself if he believes this is about "women's rights". The fact of the matter is that any excuse will be used to destabilize Iran. I'm not a fan of their regime, but if one for a second believes that certain 3 letter agencies (or 6 letter agencies starting with M) don't have boots on the ground there at this very moment, I've got a bridge to sell you.

Does this bolster the argument for 2A?

> They need something stronger to collapse their dictatorship

The dictator is literally on deaths door it seems and the succession plan is not clear.

That, combined with the protests, seems like an ample opportunity

> They need something stronger to collapse their dictatorship. They probably need a real opposition leader.

You know, since WW2, that has been a common phrase in US politics. No one has ever benefitted from it unless they willingly become sterilized and toothless - content with being a protectorate of the US and not a soverign state with its own destiny.

If Iran has issues, the iranian people must sort it out, and lead themselves into they state they want. Even if they must die trying to do so.

> content with being a protectorate of the US and not a soverign state with its own destiny

Why are you bringing the US into this?

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